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Read this: #86: The Media Podcast Predictions Special - 2018 Edition

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#86: The Media Podcast Predictions Speci…



Happy new year and welcome to the media podcast I'm only man on today.

So it's out 2018 predictions special the great and the good of the media industry revealing their top trends for the year ahead in TV radio print and online also on the program.

We discussed the latest payroll at the BBC the news that radiators new daytime schedule has an actual women in it and what the new culture secretary has in his intro.

+ we hold our guests to account for last year's prognostications just how accurate were they let's find out in today's Media podcast and joining me for the first part of the show is television producer Faraz Osman and BuzzFeed news editor Louise Ridley welcome to Bose thank you about what we your Christmas and New Year Media highlights.

I actually had yourself only man on on magic.

That was a pleasure.

How was your Christmas is mad but I watch and Crown and then it suddenly an actress that was in suits is now going to become part of the royal family and it seems like that's become the best soap opera or at least arrival at rising the White House was the year of the best football on television right now.

That's interesting statement.

Isn't it? Do you have to be a royalist to watch the Crown and it's brilliant wouldn't say it can be very interested which is gonna probably have the same effect in a long roughly underlines the fact that she's been in it for The Long Haul yes, she's got your predictions for the year ahead in just about any of my favourite episode of The IT operations.

Where is Polly cuz I get to say you're wrong last year, but first let's cover a couple of stories that have surfaced this week and I suppose I better start really with Carrie Gracie genocide BBC

Twitter posters China editor although just in time apparently to be a presenter on the Today programme, but it's about pay disparities Louise what happened Carrie Gracie China editor of the BBC and she wrote a real explosive letter to the public letter on Sunday saying that she was resigning her post because she feels she hasn't paid equally to the other three other international editors and she was one of them.

She says the two women are paid much less than the two men where they do the same work and this is pretty outrageous, so she really laid it down and yes you very much time do very well because she has been a guest presenting least a program this week.

What did you think of the actual BBC before we discuss the issue? Could it was quite curious wasn't it is hilarious, because because of you know very soon Patiala t rules and things like that.

It meant that carry was hosting the Today programme but couldn't be interviewed while she was the main story on the bulletins, which created many many hilarious conversations and thankfully, she has talked about it a lot more than other things but that kind of made a slight mockery of the way, they were able to cover themselves being a story but it's raining today.

First BBC response since I haven't seen them so although clearly sources at the BBC have been telling journalists because I've seen this exclamation written down.

I haven't seen or heard them say that the reason there's a pay disparity between her and Jeremy Bowen and Jon Sopel is that those two men previously used to present the news and that comes with a higher salary and they have a rule that once you've had a higher salary of Halloween as you're saying you haven't said it, but there is a reason and it's not necessarily about gender and yet the BBC has not come out and defended itself in that way.

Why do you think that is that this is a really complicated issue from a number of reasons why you got a big public institution that is I would argue conservative in the way that as you say it defends itself.

So it's it's very risk-averse.

It doesn't to say the wrong thing so if I don't say anything at all and I think without kind of being friendless about in today's Media landscape things move so quickly that people want to demand response immediately.

I just don't think the BBC's equipped to do that.

They want to have them say the right thing at the right way and kind of put into the issue, which was what the BBC would have done.

Probably 10-15 years ago that's in addition to the fact that the way that the BBC operates with hiring freelancers and having staff and having a real scope of how people get paid in and what they get paid further complicates the issue, so I think they like they want to say something and find out that somebody is getting paid via a private company in exhaust amount of money in it suddenly this whole whole if this keeps up again today's kind of a guest decided to just hunker down and hope this blows over which I'm not sure it.

Will is there anything such a terrible thing to say but I think her issue may become part of a bigger landscape story in the sense that the Harvey Weinstein thing we have been that kicks off a much bigger conversation around equal pay Louise you're not Siri as it had a code of me to effective does foetus.

I do lot of campaigning around sexual harassment in media and this totally filters into that and adds this really wide a kind of gender conversation going on so I absolutely agree that they carry thing will be the beginning of of a much bigger thing where everyone speaks out about about paying then different things around.

Not put you on the spot, but do you know you get paid the same as men doing a similar roller BuzzFeed pretty confident idea because he is actually made a really big deal focusing on equal pay and then should have gave everyone a slight pay rise last year with them you clean things that would is great, but I think not many of my patients.

Do that all has were very aware, what does need to happen is that there needs to be much more transparency across the industry about what certain roles get paid and and what your expectations should be so this is mariella Frostrup Sergeant around as if she was saying that one of things you're saying was about how people find it still a privilege to work with BBC and therefore sometimes.

They take lesser payasam as the rest of the industry.

I imagine and it is a kind of early prediction, but that's going to start disappearing because while we are a generation that we respect to BBC in and feel that has a real massive value when we probably would take a paycut to work there.

I think it's new generally prevents a bit.

I think it's new generation of coming up is going to go well actually younger services with BBC woodcuts, and I don't see the BBC is any other place other than a different workplace.

I expect to be paid the same as feeders.

Wood at BBC and an Asda happens will get hopefully more transparency across the whole industry as to what a certain job will pay you across the board that sounds so just like a prediction that we're not doing relations yet.

I want to talk about the shake-up at radio to the word shake-up gets used a lot doesn't it? Whenever they saw tinker with the radio schedule and there's one new program but actually there's a big fucking shake up a radio to the biggest one.

I guess is Jo Whiley is going to be co presenting drive with Simon Mayo show still have a guy sitting next to it to do this properly and there's a few things about this one is his way over due and again putting a woman in practice to have a shake-up of Radio 2 at I think that as Radio 1 of age down.

There's been more people like myself who are in their kind of mid 30s early 30s ballet 24 moving to Radio 2 and names like Jo Whiley the names of they recognise from there Radio 1 kind of upbringing as it were it so this has been long overdue because it does feel like ready to become more old-fashioned will really want to become younger and if cat needs to be squeeze.

Well, except of course people who run absolute and radio x would say that's the gap that their mining for commercial purposes very much does not need to be squeezed.

You know they've got Chris Moyles what commercial radio does it is very different to the BBC.

I always believe this and I think you're listening to the two BBC Radio your expectations around news and around features and around what's going on with the culture of the UK is there a difference in commercial radio which you expect to hear the hits being played what president on radio x is certainly haven't cut through the same way, did it did when he was on Radio 1 and the reason for that is because people wants to listen to Chris on Radio 1 people to listen to music on radio.

X is my belief that this has been long overdue.

I think what is a shame is a fact that while they don't disparage anyway, what Jo Whiley does.

I think he's an excellent broadcast that it would be nice to see some new name that weren't just graduates from Radio 1 break into the radio to mould and anything that we need to start seeing people that don't just feel like BBC personnel.

Just simply getting graduations ready want to Radio 2 with an on well except.

There are some new names to radio.

Coolest as I doubt many of head of OJ Borg doing overnight, I think I don't know whether fidelity organist entertains is going to come back in 20 years old are Leigh-Allyn by older.

I really mean in the 80s and 90s music nothing for the ugliest entertains Radio 2 was a sanctuary for that kind of programming so was BBC local radio but the director-general has now said it's ok.

You can go for a local audience of any age.

They don't have to be old actually isn't too BBC provision for older people now.

I think that's probably a good point in you do obviously stations chasing slightly younger audiences.

They do before because that is the way the world works, but then she need to do much more to appeal to older audiences got much much bigger problem with younger audiences and when I say younger I mean Tunde

40 and that's what they need to start realising themselves to because I do you say they are going to be the future licence fee payers some of them are licences has now and and I believe they're being very very underserved.

Sorry Louise interrupted your analysis gone.

I was just going to pick up.

I think the fact that this recycling centre putting more female presenters even if they were male presenters is really really overdue as Sweden saying and the fact is that I think Joe Wallace the first female presenters have a permanent show on drivetime on Radio 2 for 20 years.

This is the beginning of a surely should be a bigger changing especially when you've got a station with charts have slightly older audience is listening to it is important to have that gender balance especially the BBC ice rink from my two pennies worth because I'm allowed to say it on a podcast not load BBC until I actually think I think I've actually I think this schedule changes going to make me more likely to listen to Radio 2 whilst keeping record until I think they corrected some of the bigger as they made last year getting rid of overnights and replacing them with a playlist was obviously a bad idea you need to make sure that the music has been played is right in the same way that you know when Stevie Wonder

Call Lionel Richie goes on stage at Glastonbury everyone loses their mind and they need to come and pick up some of that magic and allow it to to permeate between all users and not just a a single homogenous older.

Will you let me run following Theresa May's reshuffle this week.

We have a new culture secretary as well.

See there's news happening at Hancock has replaced Karen Bradley Louise give us a Precis Matt Hancock didn't know too much by anybody has been working in the digital side of things last 2 years.

He was Minster state for digital goods.

Obviously he knows his stuff already.

Hopefully an interesting fact about him, although.

It's possibly not that relevant.

He's the first MP to win a horse race in modern times.

He want to watch I was riding on a horse at Newmarket even rarer than female co-presenter drivetime on Radio 2 right background but not as well known, so it's going to be nothing to see what what you Guys and Dolls become the department for digital culture media and sport hasn't it's a digital bit his background in that that is quite important if you look at big challenges near net neutrality and getting.

Rural broadband the most probably more important than running over the Murdoch for example because this is going to be a really super exciting year to be that minister.

You got the Winter Olympics coming up you got the World Cup coming up the BBC launching a massive music project and to not be the the front of he's already been tweeting about how much fun is having a Rita Ora at the London Fashion Week and I think it's going to be a big year for for British culture and media and actually I think it to me a really important year ahead of please don't fall asleep, but had a brexit.

We need to kind of be dialling up what we do as a as a culture in a much much better way to kind of fly the flag at the cross the world and and so he's actually got a much more important job than what it was used because the ministry funding that I kind of back in the day when it first launch actually I believe I would say this being on the media podcast but I believe it's probably one of the most important officers that there at the moment it so I think that there's a real opportunity for him to do some exciting things and what I hope.

He doesn't fall into the Trap to is basically talking about issues and will probably come on to the Channel 4 issue, but but talking about.

Things are Channel 4 moving outside London when the industry doesn't want it, but it feels like a good political move and I think what we need is a stabilization of that and hopefully from what I hear about his background.

He seems to be a good head on her shoulders and we should see some some sensible things in in a year that we can be celebrating British culture rather than kind of knocking down right.

I can't sit on it anymore.

It's predictions time.

I'm excited let's recap what you both said this time last year Louise you agreed with your fellow BuzzFeed journalists at the time James ball and Scott Brian that Rupert Murdoch would acquire sky in 2017.

There was a dead cert.

You thought well, it hasn't happened, but we had the exciting surprise in December of the possible Disney film so that could mean in the long run.

We put my dog is more likely to acquire sky because the competition and markets authority might say that he can't because they think it will end up in the hands of Disney I believe there's not a cross deals and possible things going on here but but you were interested, independently of the first century.

Disney seem so busy there ruling on whether or not Murdock cologne it but it's a completely different changes what happened at the CMA decision will come sooner because the Disney do this using will take years may not happen, so who knows what happened, but it does make it slightly more likely although equally hasn't happened in is uncertain.

I will admit that he also said but it would be a big year for audio 2017 think that was pretty accurate.

Are you at your Facebook live audio used you suggested with your thing that is not very much for that launched and Facebook I've been really quiet about it doesn't have its own Tavern Facebook they haven't really bad the title pushed its uptake has been pretty low and people have but the problem is very difficult to discover for example The Economist did it in utility audio posts.

It's not that there's some sort of big Audio tab like there's a video tab on Facebook you might just see a post on The Economist that happens to be live audio.

And they tried out doing at broadcast from Nigeria which is really interesting because one of the advantages of the live audio.

Is there if you're broadcasting for some other bad signal you might get bad video reception so using audio was really good in that respect but they had a very few shares on that post of the unit of the rich is really small but Colin's still experimenting with it, but yeah definitely haven't taken off Facebook video still image exactly yeah yeah very much so I would say so that isn't taken off but would like an office is Alexa and I speak to someone who is trying out someone else's Alexa in my house at the moment.

It's very interesting experience.

I think about 8 or 9 million people have them and they definitely taking off and what's really interesting in terms of wider Media censors.

You can do things like play games on them, so we've been playing a game and are Alexa you talk to it and it starts this time travel game that we have and you travel around the world and Alexa talk to you in as a quiz so there's a lot more untapped potential there a think and then feel obviously good podcasts and audio.

It's very easy to listen to some it's great to re-establish your credentials Louise

What are your predictions for 2018 said that 71% of editors and ceo's in this country said it already experimenting or looking into using AI to choose what people see when they look at that.

They look at digital editions of things as aliens the way the articles are presented not the writing of them.

Not the writing of them.

It's how you receive the contents of say it's a nappy might get something sent to you with a different frequency at a different time.

I see articles in a different order.

You might see a different side of homepage on the app which is personally tailored the times and the Sunday Times Are experimenting with something called the calling at James it's a recommendation service and they call of James the trying to build it what it would do is it exactly that is kind of Taylor to people's preferences and the big thing that benefit hopefully advertisers is This the Way We measure advertising online is is tending towards engagement a lot more so it's not how many clicks how many views is how long how much time of people?

Benny with your content and obviously personalised solarization absolutely does that there's an app in China what is really interesting that says when you spend 24 hours of it will they know exactly what these want to see in where and where you are and always kind of freaky things and it has an average engagement time of 74 minutes over a day.

Such a long time if your business modelling eyeballs, then I get why you'd want that but if your moral purpose is to bring people then use its problematic.

If that news is personalised if we're all they're interested in a celebrity news resource.

That is the air filter bubbles, so will you end up only being shown use that you like the sunset of bias reason all because your political views, but all the services kind of working on this are saying and out very much trying to avoid that to show to show you content you be interested in but not in this of such a narrow minded Close way that you'll end up having a distorted view venues.

Obviously, that's how we become really aware of in 2017 number two.

Big acceleration I hope in practical tools to fact-check journalism, so live fact-checking is hopefully actually gonna become a thing in 2018.

We can talk about fake news last year and having loads of initiatives and ideas of how to try and combat fake news, but full facts which is the fact I can charity in the UK is logged into tools this year one of them is a live fact checking service leek and hopefully live check TV such as prime Minister Question Time so essentially all be the subtitles on the TV those words will be fact-checking against a big database resisting political claims and they'll be able to say live weather things people are saying and ministers of saying are true and the second who is for trends and that is try to factor fake claims that keeps coming up again and again and again which is a big problem because as we know it's not so much just won Miss information fact that a problem.

It's the spreading of that to this will allow people like full facts about of compare the database and see why certain claims that aren't true keep popping up again and again and again and where could put another so far.

Do you have a food for us that isn't like Black Mirror

It's quite bleak, so not sure it's not like that.

I think it's going to be a really route of the A4 prints again as we can imagine the sun and the times just announced big losses the sun lost 24 million in the year to July and the times of 6pt something million and this is because of the decline of print advertising still really hitting him hard despite things like subscriptions doing ok and despite digital advertising picking up.

It's really not offsetting those losses and there's also loads of sieve hangover stuff from legal bills from phone hacking and restructuring redundancy bills, so that's gonna ok, but actually begun to illustrate a story about the printed it.

No one's predicting.

They're gonna closing the next year because they asked her friends and they are popular obviously local local printers pre-match almost gone in many many places and that will continue when it's such a sad thing.

I think we already can see there's a gaping hole where local newspapers Used to Be Wild

The great blogs and hyperlocal sites and things going on it's not the same in terms of the funding and structure that can I think but I think you know you can't underestimate the importance of a big brands being hit hard core sent on a close, but it changes what that able to do it changes, how they get on best investigative journalism a things like that so sorry for my bleach 2018 Outlook as exciting as hopefully you catch up will see how much you got wrong last year you predicted that we would see the return of nostalgia TV that is kind of right actually isn't that did happen? It's happening a lot in the US and another that is because obviously you got streaming services like Netflix just good PR when you have a name that people recognising you you can't stick it into a into a library and feel like I've been rebooted Gilmore Girls came back.

Don't know dinner speaker.

Yes, Dynasty came back.

Just appeared on my plan was like wow.

That's amazing.

There's been lots of chatter about other bits and pieces that us a kind of swirling around brands that would begin in the 80s and 90s and 2000s.

I think that that part.

To do with the fact that you've had a whole generation of commissioners that grew up on that programming on the like.

That's the best program program of all time.

It's bring it back but sometimes it doesn't quite land.

You know X-Files has been a real disappointment.

So there might be more conservative in that's in the UK it wasn't as big as expected to be I thought that we would hear conversations about scrappy challenge.

I think that there was a conversation about treasure hunt or Challenge Anneka that popped up and Disappeared there was meant to be a reboot of Watership Down on the BBC I don't know what happened to that, but that could be rebooted.

I think we'll I think I mean by Reba is is a thing that you remember from your childhood days being being brought back in in a new iteration the things.

I think I really fascinating is when you look at what Netflix have done and it's not even if it's in is Warner Brothers as well around Riverdale and now bring back Sabrina teenage witch and taking those iconic characters that were seen in one way.

An older audience audience and completely reinventing them for a new audience of people like me going to go I can't believe that.

You've done that to jughead and Betty button you wanted to come again.

This is a great thing that ever happened of all time saying that you were right but actually as we all know about the Big Breakfast in The Generation Game and Top of the Pops and they're not on telly box on telly with any Predators and blind date is I guess they didn't make such a huge splash of people my predictive.

I think it's done really well.

Happy with their bring it back is why I understand.

I think they look at something like sounds like Friday night.

That's meant to be a reinvention of Top of the Pops and bringing back that sort of live music audience spirit, so I think that's certainly some of the DNA is coming back through but I agree that there's a lot chatter it makes good headlines with any kind of fizzles out you also said last year.

They would be in 2017 more TV commissions targeted at specific demographics based on gender race and so on that was me being a little bit to basic.

The reality is is it in doing that sometimes that can lead to massive backlash particularly if you get it wrong there were programs like boy the top not that I think index.

Obviously better with audiences like myself information background and I think those commissions with done on that basis, but we had lots stories that how that was a difficult commission to make because people felt that it wasn't broad enough, so I probably got that one wrong, but I think that as we move more and more into streaming service and a lot of people talk about how they think Netflix Israel intelligence of the way that it classifies romantic comedies that feature Tom Hanks in them you know you what you're seeing subjoin as a subgenus the sub-genre is and and as Netflix continue to commission hard and another platforms like the iPlayer ruined all four on ITV hub, also replicate that sort of interface.

We will see categorisation of pregnant always been done back to front and retrofitting them to contigo the Crown is actually a romantic comedy between Prince Philip and the Queen and and I think that's where we're going to start seeing.

More targeting of existing content Tanisha audiences, so what have you got for a 6 year 4 hours? What are your big predictions for 2018 so I think I think there are gonna for major stories it going to happen and people are we talking about throughout the year and a pretty obvious it's the Disney fox deal which is Craig earthquakes across the industry.

I should carry out the Leeds predictions.

I think we'll have a massive impact on UK audiences.

This isn't just an international thing so I think the Disney fox still have an impact on UK audiences.

Obviously what's happening with the in cats in and shaker book Channel 4 and the conversations around regional moves around there is going to have a massive impact what's going on with Google and Facebook and the cost of my life to fuck did nightmare, but they see platform seems to be perpetually in at the moment and then obviously that the me to and sexual harasment issue.

Is is going to continue to Rumble on and have an impact on things that appear on-screen what I mean by ballistics suit of the Fox and Disney deal for me.

It's pretty obvious what that's all about.

That's purely about the streaming War

Queen Netflix and what is peritonitis Hula in the US and may be known as something else in in the future? I think that this you will get a very clear a picture of what that will be and how that will play out and I think that as soon as ideal case through the first thing that will see is if they pulling all of their IP off Netflix that include Star Wars all the different content probably a lot of the ABC content and that will have probably happening to National League do you think it will be called Hulu this new thing as you think that rebranding call is a meal.

I don't think I know this year.

I think that they are kind of start doing a lot of testing this year to see how strong the Disney branded is Disney life in the UK which was a soft launch available streaming product, but I think the problem with calling it Disney is it people just see cartoons and Cinderella and Aladdin and I don't realise that Marvel and ABC and ESPN all part of of that group and alongside that how do you fit in The Simpsons into disneylife? It doesn't feel like it's a good fit was arguably a problem for Disney as well exactly and and also it what that does this is it causes problems with Disney as well because

Some of the more he start after its been very successful on Netflix can't play as well on something at 53 branded, so I think that will see probably a new brand launch.

I don't personally but who doesn't have much remind share in the UK and I can't see it being something that Disney I'm married to as a streaming platform name but I don't really think it matters.

I think it just comes down to the content and it's going to be a big deal in and I think that the the impacts of UK releases in 2018 is going to be the content that you'll see on Netflix and where that disappears to and and I think that'll be the first kind of what's going on.

Where's where's all my favourite shows and why they be taken off the service discounts that is a Netflix will continue to commission hard to make sure it's got the library to make it work Facebook and Google are having huge issues around the contents being on that platform.

Obviously everything is going on with the Russian hacking softened and how its side is it in recent on prediction number one here now, so it's number two number two Facebook and Google predicts to be able to.

Facebook Facebook and Google going to have to stop what they've done previously which is just have a platform and allow the user to do whatever it is.

I'm on with it and it's two reasons for that one.

It's diminishing trust in audiences and uses of those platforms where there's lots of very good data about how people don't use Facebook but don't like it and a lot of that is to do with the fact that it's just people shouting each other and argue each other and YouTubers having significant problems where they've been horrible stories about YouTubers posting up videos of of suicides and and making it and calling it content and is Nicole unregulated world is clearly not working for those two platforms the reason that it's going to have an impact is twofold firstly Mark Zuckerberg hilariously a said that his 28th bday thing every year which is a big thing last year.

We went to every city or state in America to to talk to people this year.

It's going to be running Facebook which I thought it was doing anyway what I think Mark Zuckerberg memes.

Bye.

I'm going to go back to Facebook and effectively fix it.

Making time on Facebook be time well spent as what he said was the recognition and acknowledgement that that platform is not necessarily the humanity evolving platform that everyone and I'm delighted to be a part of the internet and he recognises it needs to be a positive thing rather than what is descending into which is a very negative thing and all this is linked to both and altruistic thing where Silicon Valley things I can save the world but I guess more importantly shareholders is a regulation thing and they are going to start doing things that that make sure that they avoid any regulation from the US or the EU quite heavily so hopefully they'll start collecting somebody she's around at platform was that mean for UK wouldn't see if I think that very simply will start seems a very premium products that advertises can feel comfortable that they advertised against Facebook watches a is isn't there is an obvious one of those and I think it's very popular in the UK yet, but they're equivalents on premium services on those things I'm popular but I think we'll see more experiments with those two platform.

Trying to figure out how they can have some sort of when I say premium service.

I don't just mean a subscription service which is what YouTube read it.

I think that will see things like YouTube Originals will see things that are on that platform that make it feel like it's not a dumpster fire and and shouting match bit of an actually feel like it's got a place for proper good quality content and allows advertisers to start advertising against it away safe for them and also allows them to kind of move the product into being something that they can control rather than what's happening in the current climate which is lots of Fringe nasty fringe groups controlling the narrative of what those platforms Denton possibly more cleverly personalised as well to go back to Louise's thing ok, and then a third thing you're III prediction was around Channel 4 so everybody talk about channel Focus eitan, Katz I think started this week or last week.

I think he's got his feet on the death now and everyone can be looking very closely as to what the impact that is going to be in a reminder for more regularly used to work at Channel 4.

How do you speed at which is more importantly in Cassis mediated through your analysis is what my prediction is people gonna be looking very hard it and it's not going to be an easy transition and I'm I'm taking his prediction based on my experience when I was a Channel 4 inch a hunting Dave Abrahams came in when things didn't quite go exactly according to plan the whole industry laptop them and we'll tearing strips off of what they were doing and it was slightly made of channels going to be disaster in eventually they both weather the storm and got through it.

I think the same thing is probably gonna happen with Alison Hammond and Ian Katz and in the sense that there are a lot of people that feel that appointment wasn't right for Channel 4.

He's gonna have to take some risks to put it's like in the Sand one of those risk isn't going to pay it off and everyone's in a leap on it probably Edinburgh to go what's going on and how's it going to work? So we're going to see your kind of a bit of a rerun of what happened with j.

Hunt again and I hope that didn't know I'm not sure quite yet, but what I hope.

Is is that he'll kind of have them.

Leave to whether that storm because channel just need a bit of a reinvention as a side note to that.

I would also like to say that this whole regional move channel opening new office somewhere outside of London that will feel biggest mate, but we'll have it fairly limited commissioning power ok for us Louise thank you.

I should just say breaking news we tweeted earlier at the media podcast for people suggestions as to trends for the year ahead and none other than mediapad regular Steve Ackerman has just tweeted back to say his predictions are big name Talent will start to turn down radio broadcaster offers in order to create their own podcast and generate their own revenues and major brand will fund and developer Saturday night show and newspapers decline will Accelerate as add money moves still have to get your next year told you up against a more after this this episode of the media podcast was recorded at run VT in the heart of Soho run BT has 15 offline and 2.

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Hello, I'm Jake kanter.

I'm the executive editor at Business Insider and that's just have a little listen back to some of the predictions.

I made last year David Abraham and Jay Hunt will leave Hanna for this year and jhon, so connected to David that she might either go or go for the cheapest active job herself.

I think she and I'm not sure she'll get it.

I'm not sure she'll get that job.

So I'm going to have the producer Matt force me to make some while predictions they weren't so what we know that is going to you Apple which is a fantastic mood.

I don't know how I'm going to top that I will try so first up.

I think we're going to see a large-scale breaking up of the

Rupert Murdoch Media Empire now the interesting thing to the UK is what that will mean for Sky it will probably mean that the regulatory difficulty around a full-scale takeover 21st century fox's off the table, but whether Disney will have the appetite to go for a full day care is not massively clear what we do know is that Disney is very well versed in running broadcasting assets, it's got ABC in the US and ownership of Sky would really put it on the map in the UK another production is I believe that one of the web Giants bit Facebook Google maybe even Amazon or Netflix will pick up some Premier League rights next year.

There's going to be a massive auction.

I think the Premier League will probably stick with Sky and BT but there are increased number of games available next next year as part of the latest auction.

I think they'll give a few a handful to some of the web Giants

very heady from my success last year.

I'm going to go all out and say that Tony who will either quit as the director general of the BBC or signal a timetable for his departure.

He's done a remarkable job of the BBC coming steady the ship.

There's always talk about who is going to be the next director-general the BBC and my bet is that it will be a woman and the early frontrunner will be Charlotte Moore that was Jake kanter from Business Insider and joining me now from the week.co.uk it is media pawn Stars Rebecca gillie, and holding thrift and holding you were on Operation show last year and I'm going to make you relive the shame of your predictions you said publishes an ad blockers war will come to a head and will be resolved by the

End of the year in actually thought Peter Dowd Robin come to a head a bit but I'm going to claim a partial victory because Google has taken action was about to take action I can't be playing for the fact they've been a bit slow after March from February 15th.

They are going to incorporate an adblocker into chrome.

It's not going to block all ads and relieved say it's going to block ads that don't meet the standards of the Coalition of better as that basically means pop-ups anything that also plays video and audio flashing bad as that does is most irritating answer for the kind acronym.

You just dropped in his that are real organisation Coalition of better at it is amazing.

What makes a good are better as the idea.

Is that if you can eliminate the most irritating ads that have intrusive 1B get in the way of content particularly on mobile phone the ones they sell at a premium people won't feel the need to install their own personal, AdBlock

This is in Googles interests because it's obviously a big favour of adverts itself from a publishers perspective of slightly mixed feelings about a minute should in theory mean even no change or slight improvement throughout the week doesn't sell these most intrusive thoughts of heads anyway, so it should took the markets like the enough favour, but it does mean even more power is handed over to Google it can switch off at a stroke a significant stream of revenue for a large number of Web sites and so Rebecca it would seem to point to the idea that this year we're going to see more of that collaborative branded content being the thing you know if if display ads of any kind of being curved then you want more content that's in Great don't you and I think that's the way things are probably going to go mean.

We've talked quite a lot in editorial meeting about the fact that traditional advertising is of placed on the web page doesn't bring in the kind of money that I used to since the switch to programmatic the revenues of really gone down so publishers and advertisers are looking for other ways to get their branding message across anything.

The intrusive ads I've lost so much credibility they really just become a tribe but you know they really does need to be a new partner.

That's probably the phone is going to take addiction last year was that another business model will claim to be the savior of digital journalism as a fairly non-specific immunity.

It hasn't really happened even in its non-specific form.

It was a year where there wasn't really a silver bullet even proposed.

It seems more that company's Revisited past silver bullets.

There's quite a lot of attention given to video Caroline podcast subscriptions and memberships games were Revisited even long-form kind of got that another lease of life.

I'm not quite sure whether this is a sign that we've all run out of ideas or it's actually that we're becoming a bit more mature as an industry and not expecting a single solution and actually going back to past ideas and looking at how they might have been better implemented or even just trying out whether the markets now ready for them in the way you do it wasn't weather for the nicest.

Is my won't fall into that category mean if you ask at final? Oh, she'd say something different ones you that may featuring one of my later predict ok? Because that does seem to be that mean the Guardian basically asking their readers for money.

It's not a Silver Bullet for them.

They still massively in there, but they less massively in that the my work's going to be lots of people will give fibre £10 in a counterfeiter virtue, but I don't think it's sustainable that some kind of subscription model hold them for 2017.

You said the issue of fake news will not be resolved which now seems almost embarrassingly obvious yeah, but I don't remember if I don't remember that seem like an embarrassing little peas prediction to mate.

Just a reflection of how much we become saturated with that issue, and it feels if with further from a solution than when we have the word Facebook said just before Christmas is going to stop flagging.

Suspected fake news stories of disputed because it found that actually made people more likely to click on them rather than less.

Well.

That is a good little maggot.

Well done.

Ok, alright well, but having established your credentials.

We were returned to you for some predictions injustice, but let's start with Rebecca what are your 3 predictions for 2018 my so well, so they want me to my bum is that why is quite good? This thing is a lot of Netflix is produced the disputed have been very good, but they have been overlooked the Academy has been particularly hostile the Golden Globes attorneys have been a bit more open probably because streaming has had even more of an impact on ITV viewing that has on film during the Academy even up until September October has been trying to find ways around find ways to block Netflix from summiting films for Academy Award consideration because they have to play for setting out of date in cinemas for Netflix just shows them for that minimum amount of which.

Cezanne Academy members claim is cheating however, I think this year's going to the year that Netflix becomes impossible to ignore and he did win an Oscar at the last awards ceremony and that was for the white Helmets was a short documentary, but I think the feature films that are much tougher nut to crack have they do have two good chances this year one of them as he say is mudbound number not a barrel of laughs, but that tends to do you know that's it's got asked about written all over it was that the other hated it as a principal and also first they killed my father which is a film about the Cambodian genocide another rip-roaring Angelina Jolie has been heavily involved in and a good indication of that is going to be 7th of January is a golden Globes mudbound is up for two Awards Best Supporting Actress for Mary J Blige as official song so that might be an indication.

You do wonder as well the extent to which Netflix supporting the film industry might help them soften their attitude within the Academy Awards put the reason as well the Amazon gold Leisure open to.

Is it is a possibility for streaming revenue if you've made a TV show traditionally if you like for a cable or a broadcast TV network it then get second life on Netflix where is if you make a film? You don't want to be telling people to stay at home and watch it you want to tell me to go to the cinemas with the greatest revenue account on DVD they don't go to cinema and watch them through the idea that the top the films are playing in cinemas enough is really just trying to throw in a fly in the ointment it at home in the pants.

Yes, what does we got for us, then predictions wise big singer of 2018 in my opinion basically what we're talking about earlier about the fake news raw data is become the only thing that's not disputable.

It's that day.

You know the fringe minority of Lunatics data journalism has become such an important way of communicating facts.

To the public in a way that they will not be disputed with any luck and we've seen paradise papers WikiLeaks info dumps has become one of the major generators of huge news stories this year and being able to pass those huge amount of information and put them across other people understand is really valuable skill Birmingham City University has just started offering a masters and data journalism, and it's also become a core component of lots of other digital journalism courses if I just doing a data dump in interpreting at you.

Are then somehow objective is it holding I mean I think about this business about the Queen was investing in the Bright House that clearly had a political Edge do that.

Sorry.

It was saying can you believe our head of state is investing in a company that is essentially exploits poorer people so it's not just a completely objective analysis that they picked something to make a juicy headline for the mirror.

It isn't even if there isn't a deliberate desire to extract a story from date.

I think it I don't quite sure Rebecca's optimism that data is of nutrients.

I think it can be done have a data journalism is open to questions about objectivity and reliability as any other form each other then the fact.

It was gives people another line of attack into it and visit you can take one set of statistics and always find some of the set of statistics that proves the opposite your III prediction Rebecca is that 2018 is going to be the year that podcasts go mainstream.

No, no I know and honesty to those of us who would you know either doing podcasts or listening to them? It may seem like they are already vertically mainstream however, but really Miranda Sawyer is review of Radio 4 of 2017 at she's saying this is the first time she's felt like she's picking more podcast and radio programmes and anecdotally this is definitely the first you have noticed people asking what pub?

To listen to in the same way that you might ask someone what bands are listen to all books.

They're reading then.

There's become a real consensus around.

What are the hip hop bass you know they've not become a new thing where you have to go on Twitter to find other people listen to them a rethink The Turning Point even that does start in 2015 was my dad wrote a porno and October of 2017 they published a toy and book and by that point it had over 90 million downloads have to be yeah answer me this spin-off of the advance was well worth the 18 for regular royal baby.

I think the Turning Point this year.

It's going to be getting the larger companies onboard.

There's been that kind of Sword of narrow.

Tranche of companies have been supporting podcast so if you listen to podcast you heard all about my audible blue apron.

The same companies 10 come up over and over again, but getting the big companies involved.

It's going to be in getting big budgets which is going to be in the Independent podcast would be able to compete with Radio 4.

Think that drama investigative that I've noticed actually I'm in First Direct have just been sponsoring answer me this which is something that would have been completely incomprehensible 7 years ago, but it was an interview with one of the managers of audioboom you saying that they ran a study that found that 65% of people who listen to podcasts went on to try one of the trials of the services, but it does have much higher engagement than other forms that you mention my dad wrote a porno and holding in if that is The Turning Point I mean nothing could be more millennial than that so then it hasn't gone mainstream as it's really only really properly properly goes mainstream when the biggest podcast is Steve Wright's love songs a step in that direction.

I think which shows it is becoming more mainstream is the BBC is is frantically flogging all of this podcast and you can't really listen to her a Radio 4 programme that without being urged to download the podcast for extra bits and boil recommend the BBC Radio 4 forethought podcast which includes an extra 6 1/2 minutes volume an older model 3 predictions for the year.

Inglesby of the pivot video in 2018 we're going to see a pivot away from video as publishers realise that it's very expensive hard to do well to take the if you don't have a background in making videos.

It's really inefficient way of transmitting information which is at the end of their what digital news is all about the pressure has come because advertising rates are higher for video than they are for display ads on the reasons.

We can talk about it, but that's partly because of scarcity video and as soon as the number increases that's guess he disappears and so revenues dropped publishers have to make more in order to maintain the same cost and because they're expensive that just doesn't make economic sense so I think they're in the big investment.

We seen it.

Is it has almost been self-defeating and will will see a move away from that good one.

I think it's also becoming might be understood that the statistics on Facebook video us like exaggerating prediction.

I think we'll see a serious attempt in the EU and the US to regulate Twitter and Facebook

These are fairly safe, but we've already seen rules coming into effect on the 1st of January in Germany that require Twitter to take down any accounts that are breaking German law.

I'd be surprised if there wasn't any you have an attempt to do something similar the US has until now been very reluctant to regulate social media can do any kind of technology company but as the extent of rushing attempt to interfere with the 2016 election become clear the seems to be more willingness from both Republicans and Democrats to enact and kind of regulation there and your III prediction for the year and my section is that the Guardian will introduce some form of paywall by the end of the year in which it will pretended not to pay well ok? How's how's that going to look to the use of them? Have you make that I think they will they will still probably end up introducing some new service or News section nodding premium exactly and I'll say that this is not then putting existing content.

The pain was a new service that you can pay extra for the end result will be the same now your background is as if we talk about this on the podcast before used to be at the X Y Z online edition which has proved to be a relative success.

It is profitable charging people to read The Times online, so is that ultimately what is going to win out Murdoch was right? I think he was more right than most people thought he was at the time.

I think it's taking some time for him to become right.

I haven't got much time.

I have to make this step I expect it would be much more like the Telegraph premium to the sun in tonight rather than the Times all-or-nothing approach one of the advantages of having a subscription model is not just the regular stream of money you getting rather than the occasional donations.

Do you might be able to listen Barracks you end up with much more engaged readers who become more valuable to advertisers and also to other revenue streams.

You might be able to set up such as reader events.

Thomas your travel offers those sorts of things excellent, I will be holding you to these predictions this time next year and use well Rebecca you don't escape.

Just cos this is your first predictions.

Yeah, you're booked in for next year did thank you very much to Rebecca Gillett and Holden frith.

If you enjoyed hearing the three of us talk and Rebecca's right.

This is the year of podcast go mainstream.

Then do check out the week unwrapped which is the show that we make each week with the media producer Matt Hill which you can find on your podcast app of choice well, that is it for a show for today.

My thanks Rebecca gillie, Holden frith Jake County Louise Ridley and Faraz Osman you can hear all our predictions episodes from 2015 to the present day by subscribing for free on our website via Media podcast.

Comment prediction is that we will continue a fourth year of making me so independently but we do need your help take out of voluntary subscription.

Just a fiver a month from each of you can keep us going this year head to the media podcast dot.com / donate.

And give us generously as you can I've been on him and the producer Matt help the media podcast is a PPM production until next time.

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