Read this: #127 - 2020 Vision: Pundit Predictions Special
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Happy new year and welcome to the first Media podcast of 2020.
I'm only man today show is our annual predictions special a glimpse of what 2020 has in store for the media.
We invite some of our favourite industry insiders to reveal their trends for the year ahead in TV radio print and 2019 was a big one with the launch of mega streaming services Disney Plus on Apple TV and britbox the rise of TiK ToK Telegraph sale, not to mention another culture secretary some of our favourite contributors are going to share with you their trends for the year ahead including generous Alex Hudson audio bosses Deegan and Paul Robinson and media analyst Karen Robinson stay tuned to find out whether 2020 will be the Year Facebook dies who will win the battle to survive the streaming Wars
If the BBC Concert live long enough to win over generation Z but that start with a Reckoning how many of the predictions made by expert contributors this time last year actually came true and how many were wildly off the Mark regular guests Rebecca gillie, Faraz Osman and Jake kanter sit in judgement of themselves in just a moment ago.
Let's start with the managing director of one of the UK's biggest content companies after a year spent beefing up their podcast production in these something else is now responsible for David Tennant's big interview and companion cast for the drama series The Crown Steve Ackerman is the MD predictions from last year to see how I did the first thing I said was there be a real mentioned in Headland and that some really famous agency names will be retired by some of the holding companies and we certainly saw that happened the second.
Was that short form storytelling on social would rise particular Instagram stories and we've definitely seen great using Instagram stories.
I also said when I was talking about social that would be great progress from tiktok and Eliza Snapchat and I'm feeling pretty good cos I think I've got both of those right as well and then the third thing I predict which I think was maybe a bit of an easy one, but I did predict that we see continued aggressive growth in the podcasting.
I did also say the scripture podcast it come out of the UK I did we did see that because if you had passenger list that UK produce different was backed by us money from radiotopia.
So looking ahead to 2020.
What do I think he's going to be a I'm going to start podcasting because I just think this is the big story for 2020.
We've seen such massive growth going on in 2019.
I think it's going to carry on but I think what we're gonna start see even more than 20/20 is that positions of podcast and companies both in the US and the UK I also think we're going to see some really large content.
TV players potentially a few more the movie studio start to look to get into the podcast space as that move and drive towards developing IP really stepped up ace my second prediction and it doesn't give me any pleasure to predict.
This is that I think the BBC's going to have a very tough time in 2020 on two fronts first of all a government that seems to be slightly hostile towards them.
It's going to have an implication for the BBC from a financial perspective particularly as we wait to see how things play out over the approach to the non-payment of licence fees and whether the government is going to stop prosecuting people that could really have a big knock on effect for the BBC in terms of their finances, am I so prediction is really over the on-demand TV space obviously going to see some new players into the space as people like HBO start to launch their offerings in the UK and one would think that some point that has to start me some casualties in this space and my prediction is that brick box is going to be the player that's really gonna.
Find things tough going with the big American players coming to the space with biggerpockets big ability to market their products and ultimately I think it's britbox that might suffer and might eventually fall does my predictions for 2020 Steve Ackerman ok time for Jake kanter Who after taking up a role at deadline as international editor Cent 2019 reporting some of the biggest Media stories of the Year nowadays.
He's the chair of the broadcasting press Guild as well, but let's find out if his predictions from last year came true Happy New Year Media papa.
Jake kanter here so I predicted three things last year with mixed success the first of which was that we would see the full scale of apples TV vision.
I got this one right at Apple TV Plus in November 2019 with content like the morning show what we saw Jay Hunt really getting to work in Europe and signing up Sharon Horgan on an exclusive deal and commissioning and above shows.
Also predicted that the BBC with Closer TV channel.
Obviously I got this one very badly wrong, but I still think the BBC is shy away from making some big cuts and the guy could really attack it this year through decriminalizing non-payment of the licensee this alone would give it 200 million shows the first thing I did was that the government would have a shot at regulating the internet again.
I got this one right and we could see the creation of a tech regulator this year with the aim of policing harmful content online and improving data handling culture secretary Nicky Morgan has got a really big job on her hands with that looking ahead to 20th.
I think we might start to see some sort of consolidation among the streaming services even for a lowly Media jealous like me who gets paid to watch telly.
There is just too much.
To watch and I think that sooner or later that will begin to bite for some of these companies the big persistent rumour of courses that Apple will buy Netflix now.
I'm not saying that deal what happened, but I think see consolidation of that ilk at this year sticking with the stream as for my second prediction.
I think the more big British talent will be snapped up by these online video companies at the scene Phoebe waller-bridge.
Golden handcuffs with Amazon Peter Morgan to the deal with Netflix and Sharon Horgan went to Apple as I mentioned earlier.
There will be more and finally 2020 is do or die for Channel 4 content chief in cats.
I think the jury is still out on whether the former Newsnight manager job at Channel 4 after 2 years in the hot seat I think he now needs to show at this year that you can find a new generation of noisy hits and keep Channel 4 viewing share healthy.
If not the most talked-about man in TV which was the monarch I gave him in a deadline.
Please last year well.
It could be out of a job and that woman has no longer than most an average TV Jake kanter return of Rebecca Messina formerly Rebecca gillie, longtime Media podcast contributor the capital of this year to take up a digital editor at immediate Media in Bristol leaving the Big smoke hasn't exempted from the Reckoning though will her predictions from last year we prove right.
You're so I predicted that 2019 with Marks The Return of appointment TV I was just saying that I think I was right for you the biggest shows of last year.
You know fleabag Chernobyl Game of Thrones the second series of killing Eve I think they will prove that week by week Sit Down TV is a bath and bed.
Count to 2020 I think my top predictions 2020.
It's bit of a sad one is it I think we'll see the closure of another major women's print magazine.
We already saw closing down there print output this year and if I had to take a gas.
I would say that it might be in the danger zone in August they're so cute 100000 month for the first time and I think it's certainly it's not that one another familiar name from the supermarket shelves will be leaving us.
This is the sea the BBC forced to take major action to reassert his reputation for neutrality and very vitriolic comments thrown at the BBC this year particularly on social media.
You know Connor times journalist particularly Laura kuenssberg the kind of a taxi came under the general election.
I think were the opening side but the right song.
Crystallizing public figures in this kind of the toilet language, I think it's definitely sign that tempers have reached boiling point and I'm not sure that BBC can go back for this position without making significant changes or concessions invite people on both sides of the political spectrum.
What form that will take whether that's increased transparency or a different form of demonstrating transparency or editorial Changes but I think that's something that would definitely going to see play out this year another three.
I think this is the year we're going to find streaming service for Teague just in November alone.
We saw the Apple TV Plus and britbox US Netflix or Amazon Prime rivals 31st of March this year will be the UK launches Disney + streaming service and I think is going to be the point where the average person just throws at the hands and says I can't take this anymore.
You know if you're going to carry on paying know which one is cheaper for 567 months time.
Of them you've basically got the same that you pay for a Sky subscription in the whole point of the streaming models that was supposed to break the existing status Quo and three people up to just enjoy the media.
They wanted that having to pay but loads of stuff.
They didn't want on top of it and I think when you're paying for more than 2 streaming services.
You're starting to end up towards that line where 5 people are going to say that we've been basically being LED into doing the same thing that we are trying to escape in the first place which is paying through the nose for tons of content the majority of which we don't actually want the senior production company gold wire in 2018 for Osman spent last year making content for the BBC to win over audiences other companies can't let he's pleased with how his predictions from last year panned out the last year so what to avoid Olly Holden me to account with Andrew Neil show grilling and will attempt to create my own narrative about.
Firstly, I said that Apple would buy a major studio like Sony in an effort to pull it back catalogue for streaming video service and instead.
They're not a grand total of 8 titles however.
They recently signed an exclusive Richard helper the celebrated cbi chief.
That's not good news CDs new owners AT&T but it is a shrewd Move by Apple and win their first major breakout show is sure to follow the Apple bundle of service together music news magazines and TV and wireless service is not independently apple decided against them under one banner.
I reckon that still going to happen and it's probably been held up record labels being cold on the idea that backed up by Apple basically giving Apple TV Plus away with a 3-years ascription to anyone that buys a new Apple device my prediction is that Tony Hall was going to step in the director-general of the BBC after relatively calm and decent period for them that definitely didn't happen and there's little sign that is going to have been a lot of movement within senior commissioning team at the BBC
This time last year things that pretty ok for them post-election things aren't nearly as Rosie at new broadcasting house, I'd also predicted that major pro casting platform was going to launch and Spotify put their rather massive green flag in the same as they moved in the podcast in space and earth quakes through the building industry.
I'm definitely going to talk that one up as a win for my crystal ball so my predictions for 2020 and beyond cinema is going to have a really really long time at Disney citation theatres and movies focus on his own platforms Disney have dominated cinema taking in over 10 billion dollars last year alone with Marvel Star Wars Toy Story and remakes of their old animated films CEO Bob iger is leading the company with the launch of Disney plus and it's probably the biggest might drop that were ever see in the entertainment industry video games are going to be thinking popular culture next year the launch of new consoles from Xbox and PlayStation will be inescapable as a domino advertising and the retail space and original gaming IP will seep into every entertainment corner.
Big budget films and TV shows as a dominant of comic book heroes have finally taken out by The Videogame counterparts and finally I predict that we're going to start seeing the ownership of social media platforms changing hands while the rise of tiktok has been phenomenal Association as a wholly-owned Chinese companies putting it on the crippling regulatory pressures selling a stake to someone outside of those borders my quick fix those issues and depending on what happens with the 2020 us elections.
I think someone is going to make a play for Twitter founder and current CEO Jack Dorsey seems to be less attached to the platform day by day and it doesn't have the user base of its rivals it still has a voice that could be seen as very very valuable to the right investor speak about social if you want to see what we get up to this year.
You can follow us on Twitter Instagram LinkedIn at gold underscore Happy New Year prayers Osman and I'll be back with more sight into what the next 12-months might hold for the media industry after this.
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Go back to the moon podcast predictions special is not over yet still to come inside as Matt Deegan Karen Robinson Tara Conlan reveal what they expect from the next 12-months in TV radio print and online, but let's start with media consultant and radio veteran Paul Robinson what does think the world has in store for us in 2020 hello? This is Paul Robinson from creative media partners with some forecast for the media podcast for 2020 so first of all streaming an S4 June 2019 has been a busy year, but it'll be even more competitive in 2020 with Amazon Prime video Netflix and Hulu competing with Disney which is already launched an Apple TV and more services to come including one from Discovery and in the UK we also have NOW TV so if you look at the research it suggests that 44% of
Customers who pay for an online streaming service have at least two subscriptions 18% pay for 3 and 7% pay for more for a more immersive.
Yes, it's going to be very very difficult for me to come into the market unless they've got a very compelling content offer and original and exclusive content so with all these players survive will new entrance successfully come in and what will happen to the existing players so forecast number one is that Netflix the market leader with 160 million subscribers will be up for sale in 2020.
They would have balance sheet which has got a horrible holding it but the whole is supported because they continue to add new subscribers and increase their average revenue per user there are proof by increasing their price is slowly but surely, but will that continue I think they will be up for sale and will be the buyers.
I can only see two one would be Amazon and the second would be Apple so
What's the first forecast that Netflix is up for sale in 2020 second still with streaming britbox the ITV BBC joint venture which is also an escort service in US I can see this being highly successful.
It's 100 million TB household market there's a lot of anglophiles in the US and britbox will find its place as in the service in the US in the UK a different story with iPlayer being very strong with the extended window now and I play of 12-months and most of the shows on britbox having a window on a free TV TV 4K TV channel and then another streaming service to pay for britbox seems very unlikely so I think he's going to struggle and by the end of 2020 we are going to see britbox or be radically engineers in its current form and then 32 radio and dancing developments being podcasting and podcast Radio podcast Radio launches in 2020.
As a london-wide dab service the BBC days, that's recently come out.
They have claimed 3 million weekly users now to BBC sounds up from 1.3 million in June but it has been very heavily promoted on BBC Radio and BBC TV 630 million place if you take brexit cast out of it most of the podcast getting the big numbers on new ideas different people doing different things that are not on BBC Radio 4 podcast ing is not the same as radio either in terms of the talent the subject matter or the intimacy the plane which is actually consumed so will podcast Radio work.
I believe it will because at the end of the day.
It's about getting exposure and getting podcast onto a london-wide dab will give him great and will result in people trying those podcast and just one bit of Interest I'm the chairman of East London radio and we can be very much involved with podcasts radio in 2020.
Major streams on the X we believe that podcasting as a broadcast medium will be very successful in 2020 and I'm deputy editor of metro.co.uk Ian Pearson Nobel Prize winner reckoned eliminate will be doing all the cleaning and you must endeavour to respond to go to Mars already given that none of those a true predicting the media landscape is tricky, but I'm going to have a go first one big us players are going to look to British and European over recent years the UK seen so many exports to us the Guardian Angel online have a huge successes.
There's rumours that the sun is up inna stuff in there and what 2020 will be the year of is it happening the other way round so I didn't get time to looking for 10 million subscribers and is focusing on the UK as a key market the New Yorker too.
I think so and if I had to guess I can one of the big us news magazines time music.
Atlantic us Weekly or another one is going to make a big play in the British European markets, just a hunch the second one is gonna have a huge impact.
This is going to be here when 5G and the media has to reactivate define you make video viable for his publisher.
It should make augmented reality into a meaningful way to create content opens up so many possibilities we don't know what the bandwidth and I've only seen speeds over 250 MB a second or so few people using the network, but this is the first time that really comes before the media supply for it.
So what you could live streaming and Ruby are what happens when 4K video can be effortlessly without Wi-Fi content providers aren't ahead of this.
They were with 2G 3G 4G is exciting but terrifying have anything more than HD video to offer at the minute, so what comes next and that's our job to find out.
The third one is something has got to give the streaming walls like how many streaming services are too many but Netflix you got £100 a year for Amazon Prime on at 6-months plus and Max britbox people Apple TV Hulu be in there could be more hear that either ones I forgotten all that haven't even been announced yet and that all adds up.
So it could be £6 or service but it is 10 to choose from that's a lot of money on me and which ones will consumers pick, how does Netflix for the future start retain its customer base that will not be maintained Disney also has huge potential are shown by the report a 20 million subscribers in the 7 weeks after launch.
That's completely ridiculous, but on the other side of things to ones to watch as Apple TV when the free trial start to end and britbox sounds a month.
What shows you can already watch Channel 4 ITV hub iPlayer strikes me as strange but we'll see like it's an overseas player.
I think it harms British simple and rather than being forced is it?
Far and wide if it been stuck within britbox rather be allowed out to different streaming platforms number for that tiktok stocks morphine this beautiful people created wonderful and content and its best thing is that so much of the content is there just because people wanted to create it rather than people thought they could make money from it with the Instagram backlash the influence.
They were already in love or about to see traditional Media turn to tiktok the ones existing recovery driver light on YouTube is next one will be on this platform.
It's ridiculous and diverse and funny and where actual real people live 2020 with the EuroMillions come along and utterly ruined in parallel to the most forward-thinking advertisers coming along and setting out the model of how brands are going to spend big money there, but it is dead and that's kind of what TiK ToK relies on it just the personalities then, what is the industry going to come up with next and there is so many more the podcast Awards will be similar to the streaming battle a beaver finally hire.
Is going to have a day that will end up being referred to as a day Facebook died the new voices of the Next Generation will finally start coming through now Paxman Humphries and the others are Airways and the first 8k broadcast happened in a technical and it will be the biggest story of the consumer electronics.
Show is a TVs finally become almost affordable my name is Karen and I'm planning director at element and the host of to podcasts primarily 2020 about the US democratic primary and the newly launched until one day a kids fiction.
I have three predictions to set out for you in terms of what the media landscape might look like in 2020 the first of these is that I would be looking at some threat to the BBC licence from both left and right political spectrum already hinted that.
He might decriminalise licence non-payment for the BBC start need a left as well.
Jeremy corbyn's labour have
Critical commentary about the BBC and has directed leftist activists against the Enterprise both sides are seeing it as a partisan and biased in One Direction or the other and the long-term implications of that are that it might become hard to defend where these two BBC might have a job to do to defend its independence and it's licence whether or not you can go BBC has been bending over backwards to try and curry favour with politicians.
It seems clear that it hasn't worked and so I would look for some political challenges to the BBC Enterprise a carnival so would expect if that happened that you might see you are kind of secondary production which is a a backlash to that because the BBC is a beloved British institution, so I would be surprised if we didn't then see campaigners Up In Arms in Defence of the BBC of the other major production.
I would have and unfortunately I know it's not 19 forever out is I think we can.
Safely assume with it somehow or other Facebook is going to badly screw up the US presidential election in November of 2020.
We've got the possible world in 2016 of course Facebook had a big impact on that election in ways that we didn't see at the time both in terms of peace band but also a lot of content was fake news disinformation.
They haven't really fix that problem.
They've added some transparency features since then, but they haven't really nails the problem of fake news and info in one important way, they've made it much worse because Facebook has of course changed their policy since the 2016 election and now explicitly permit false information in political advertising now in a record of an hour's case scenario here because Facebook has not only made that policy change but made it long enough in advance that I would expect now you'll see.
Both sides of the political aisle and friendly independent groups as well explaining that fact arm and putting out a lot of false information directly into reach anywhere from millions of people to highly targeted advertising Facebook employees have been pushing back on this and it was trying to get stuck around to rethink that position and 112 are trying to push for is to 4-bed microtargeting below a certain point of things that you wouldn't be able to target a couple hundred people with all sides in in a particular city in Wisconsin but nevertheless whether it's small or big.
I think we'll see a lot of explicitly falsehood go information and dad's but you might want to think about just turning off the Facebook platform all together or you're going to get a lot of the information from your auntie in Minnesota sorry Minnesota aunties and the words.
Enterprises that offer hyper servicing to meet interesting fan Communities on a paid subscription basis now.
This is a train that we've been saying anyway with lots of things like tiny newsletters, but I would expect to see that commercialised a bit more and scaled up one of them people in the UK of the type of thing that mean is the large of the athletic last so I think we'll start seeing more and more of that type of business model aircraft sports with a cross other Enterprises like fashion world down to art and those are my predictions were going to be quite a year no matter how you look at it.
Stay tuned director of folder media and fun kids and I'm also the coordinator of the British podcast Awards predictions for 2020 well.
I've got three my first one is all about exclusives exclusives.
Podcast world has been that you can get any show anywhere if you whatever device you use or whatever software used as you can subscribe to a podcast and listen to it that way but I think that's all changing we still quite a bit of it in 2019 with BBC sounds having some windowing where they started to put pockets first and also we saw Spotify take a few podcast private sort of answer put them behind a paywall to see much more of that in 2020.
It's in everyone's interest will accept consumers that they can do all these devices and manufacturers and service providers can grow their audiences in the best way to do that is to have exclusive content are we staying in the world, Netflix and Amazon and I think it's coming to audio now as well as BBC sounds on Spotify I think this year will see apple podcasts have some exclusive content.
In their device also, I think we'll see the growth of other subscription audio services, so your order must be in the UK for a long time, but we'll see the growth of people like luminary and also similar companies do more language specific stuff across Europe a place where you have to pay to get premium audio.
Ok, my second prediction is about radio consolidation commercial radio consolidation.
We saw a huge amount of that in 2019 particularly with our acquisition of the wireless group local stations UK D-Link salad or if I don't trouble trying to get that through the CMA so I expect that to be resolved pretty quickly this year that will see them likely roll out their networks across more of the place on the stations, but perhaps on some of their existing stations to they really been pushing the hits hits radio and Greatest Hits radio we also know that.
Brandon kiss and magic which could be rolled out of the places to go then we'll be strong rollout national brands for power and that doesn't leave many stations colour of unaligned in the UK so I would expect the sum of the bigger ones the left things that the kmfm group and things like the radio in Northern Ireland and more likely to fall into these big networks.
I didn't existing is there a local radio station is going to be more difficult and nothing will probably see the end of very local commercial radio and finally we had a previous in December but the attacks on the BBC only going to increase at the Conservatives with a strong majority suddenly have the ability to be more difficult to The Corporation has been pretty negative towards the BBC but they always need the boys know that they can't have shut it down or sell it off because it is it's too popular the best way to eventually finish off the BBC
Crumble from the Inside to make it self-harm and to have less consumers listeners viewers now.
They're going to do this in a couple of ways although the option to send a couple of ways one is there's a bit of a licence be review money.
It's not a full charter renewal which is still quite a few years away, but there's a bit of wiggle room to cause some trouble for the over 75s licence fees with the Tories have always pushed that the BBC should pay for that Sheerness £180 of money the BBC would have to save to pay for that animals to be a tax on editorial particularly around social media where we're all in our own Bubbles and that's the same for people in the political sector to they see so much of their own world anything from from the outside looks like buyer, so I can't see that stopping the wonderland report for the BBC is that rise in.
Social media and kind of fake news for one of a better word and at the same time arise in US Media control in Netflix Amazon but you know comcast ownership Sky Disney ownership of musical products may make the government consider the devil you know with the BBC at least it's something that they can control and ensure there's more UK content so my top 3 predictions for the Guardian broadcast magazine and the RTS magazine television this year, I'm wondering if it's the beginning of the menu options available for consumers, how much will a stick with Netflix and Amazon is Hulu Disney apple NBC universal quibi?
Add funded foods such as Pluto all these new entrants are coming in but viewers only have a finite amount of time and money and what is their crunch point and with that in mind by Netflix with over 12 billion dollars of Des and new rivals there's been talking could be bought by someone like apple streaming market matures will probably hear more in 2020 new short form social media tiktok and how that can be harnessed and monetized plus platforms that encompass on-screen interactivity with live such as twitch and mixer.
How old is newcomers are regulated compared with traditional TV is another thing are there? I think we'll keep commentators and politicians busy this year and also be about Studios and supervisors.
We've been through an error when he was selling off all down scaling Studios and now Studios about the sky Studios expand.
Into Elstree of a couple of years and Netflix renting most of Shepperton I think this will lead to the further rise of the Star Super writers in comedy and Drama which is quite right in my book that properly rewarded now.
There's been big names previously such as Andrew Davies but now there's even more are you said look at Peter Morgan still with Netflix and has Netflix nose to expand globally you've got as compelling content or Greg Dyke predict is the programs stupid though with euro 2020 coming out this year and ITV's new Julian fellowes drama, Belgravia Richard please Downton fans + the Billy bonkers the masked singer we met.
I think him more about traditional TV shows this year.
I take Peter crouch's euro 2020 entertainment show which could be sort of a new Last and everyone will be asking James Corden and Ruth Jones and the cast of Gavin and Stacey every event that go through this year.
What will happen to Nessa and Smithy and when the next installment of Gavin and Stacey
But also this year.
I think we'll start to see the whites of the eyes of the new government's pre-election talk about the future and BBC we can probably expect her a lot about the BBC's funding settlement in March 2022, but I think I'm loving will start in Earnest this year of The Corporation laying out its toll and others doing the best to knock it down, but it's also worth remembering that 2020 who is the same year the BBC centenary going to cut the BBC in that year when is celebrating 100 years? It's not really good look more interesting me after his nerve-wracking metro in the forthcoming new series of Top Gear I think I'll be even greater interest in presenter Freddie Flintoff he can talk about issues such as mental health and tolerance as readily as he can perform daredevil seems to be nothing he can't do one thing for certain that in 2020 and that viewers will have more choice than ever before that is all for this week.
My thanks to all my guests.
Excellent speculations will find out this time next year if any of them actually came true tell us what you think of the pictures.
You've just heard or make your own suggestions for 2020 by tweeting as we are at the media podcast if you enjoyed this episode and you've made a resolution to give something back.
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Researchers at the snow leopard trust the answer is artificial intelligence by using Microsoft AI to analyse thousands of remote camera images for snow leopards a task that used to take days is now done in minutes, so researchers have more time to save the threatened species.
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