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Read this: #148 - Media Podcast Predictions 2021

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#148 - Media Podcast Predictions 2021…

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Hello and a head of the series returning next week welcome to this bonus New Year edition of the media podcast in which we invite our esteemed pundits predict Media trends for 2021 and then entirely unfairly hold them to account for their predictions for the year.

Just gone and this is the fifth annual Media podcast from special kickoff.

Please show deadlines international editor Jake kanter is here and the MD of Bloxham company gold wallet for us Osman Happy New Year happy Happy New Year hello glow up with you.

I'm going to humiliate you or possibly applaud you first by recapping what you said last year you predicted the 2020.

The consolidation of streaming services a sort of Apple buying Netflix situation you said because there is simply too much on-demand content to watch you said more big British talent will be snapped up streaming services.

How do you speculate at cats could be out of a job? Why don't you rate yourself give us your own scorecard there Jake I'd say maybe 2:30 at a push one-and-a-half two-and-a-half go through step-by-step.

Yeah, obviously apple didn't buy Netflix but I think I caveated that quite mention that last time but I mean we are starting to see some consolidation.

I would say you're ready going to look at Disney which is unveiled plans to make it star strimmer available internationally via Disney plus and that's the sort of more adult service to go alongside some of the safe children's contact number.

Yeah, you'll see series like lost and 24 here in the UK and it will be a destination where you know grown-ups can go and do some TV watching away from the films that consolidation but you could say actually rather than what you said which is simply too much content to watch predicted this obviously because you didn't know coronavirus is coming but there's no Wi-Fi for streaming content mentioning Disney plus at all as you success story shows people are happy to keep safe driving to be things that is true.

That is entirely true but sooner or later.

I steadfast belief that will have to be some consolidation.

There is not enough room in people's pockets in their wallets to be paying for these services well into the future.

I think in a short-term not going to the cinema and they're not going to eat out dinner and stay very much within therefore walls and people are very willing to spend a bit of extra money on the things that they were watching on there.

And that's probably why you're seeing such a boom in streaming at the moment.

I don't think that all they'll be a cliff Edge to that but I do think it will taper off from Sydney Australia to say that we snapped up by the streaming services work that one.

I was I was plum on my own again.

I think the biggest the biggest deal was one which is the Charlie Brooker is production company company called broken bones was bought by Netflix in a first-of-its-kind deal for Netflix in the UK so big chunk to change swap hands until about $100.

It could totally out at we saw the fruits of that relationship come to bear at the end of the year when Charlie did death of 2020 and is still in his job at Channel 4 but do you think it's been a precarious here for him? I think actually coronavirus has been helpful for Ian

Because it is allowed him to change the narrative about what he's doing at Channel 4 then going into last year there were a lot of concerns about the fact that was over relying on a lot of brands and wasn't innovating in the way that it should have done but coronavirus is completely disrupted all of that went through a very channel went through a very very sticky patch.

There was an existential wobble around April time when the TV ad market just completely collapsed, but it actually recovered really well and the audience share on its main channel Rose 3% last year which is really impressive.

I think there are still questions around innovation, but yeah, it is one of the most undervalued skills in television keeping old shows successful, and if you look at the health of Gogglebox and the

Bake-Off I mean just brilliant series through and through you have to have all those things ok well.

You're talking to the expert here and keeping all brands Alive by me having to be doing it on to you your predictions from last year were quite astonishingly that cinema is going to have a rough time.

Thanks for the launch of Disney plus that video games will dominate entertainment that the ownership of social media platforms such as tiktok will change hands and that someone will make a play for Twitter that was a pretty good sweeper predictions.

I must say what did you know? I'm not saying I've been looking forward to this podcast but I'm pretty fit in Smoke right now in 2019 at step down in January couple of months off from that and watching media bundle and I have done that and they kind of done that bigger than that with Apple fitness and apple news and apple arcade so

That is going to settle I think that joke is is smart in what you saying about the limits of people have with the amount of money.

They got in their pocket.

I would argue that some reason Mike will be filled and other stream broadcasters are launching our struggling, but I think that it was a you know as much as I am the truth.

It is anybody that made predictions last year was completely because of what happened and you know the whole world is turned upside down the thing that has happened is everything and accelerated literally closed Avenue couldn't put it to that maybe that actually think that the question about how Cinemas will continue to operate when Netflix are making so much investment into big budget films like Roma you know that was coming up the Horizon and it could be argued that it just happened sooner rather rather people well soon and people thought that might have accelerated as well as you know Cinemas having a hard time it what might have accelerated is the code of Gatsby ization of the sea.

Alright, so you might go less but when you go you might be spending more money you having luxury experience really enjoying other people being in the room using your film carefully.

It's not there at the end of this year is really fascinating and I think that like we will still be having a bit of a pensioner to go in lots in two places with lots of people that we don't know coughing and spluttering all over the place until we do get towards the end of the year.

Do you think cinema will require some smart business models to to re-emerge from from this? I think we'll see less of them.

I don't think all is going to reopen and the ones that do we open will be will have a little bit more innovative in in what they're offering and also we've got things like ngm going up for sale which you know they look after the bond franchise and as well as a classic sand and I think the extreme will pick that up will continue to kind of plant of the flag in the Sand about where you watch movies and the fact that you do on a streaming platform and and not in a cinema but either way.

I think that lots of Studios lot.

Have been sitting on some pretty hot scripts waiting for the ability to film them and that can happen this year, so I do think we're gonna get some pretty awesome storytelling to water turned it.

Where will watch it.

I think it's still open for Debate and gaming I mean video games will dominate advertising entertainment you said that went because it quite a lot of people who listen to this wear that they should know more about gaming but thank you babe.

I think I mean you have to get on the train now.

This is the gaming industry is so massive it's bigger than sport and something bigger than music.

It's the revenue this year from gaming outstrip the revenue from sport and movies combined Sonic the Hedgehog was on the biggest films of the year.

You'll have everyone playing Among Us including Alexandria ocasio-cortez fundraising on it with Leanne Omar during the election this year by Dan Harris launched a birthing Animal Crossing where you could go and visit their campaign HQ in an intense.

BBC Sport are doing rocket League Netflix a doing video using videogame IP to build up their library, so we'll see her Resident Evil series we saw the Witcher do massive numbers Final Fantasy cyberpunk cupheads all of those things are coming to to Netflix as a narrative series so it is absolutely huge and I think it's only going to get bigger when I think it is going to be a generation split a people who are they are agent and and below the right age bracket for our aging below with a really going to continue to to see how such an integral part of popular culture and it's going to be a case of those who were on board and does he want and just breathe on this would move on to your predictions for the year ahead on gaming that that thing about revenue can people often say that you realise you've taken them Hollywood or whatever is that just because the games cost 50 quid so that's why I've never never get my head out.

Won't you wait till my predictions and we can talk about that cooking Tees

Didn't know you had radio skills as well for us alright.

What are your predictions for 2020 1 L cancel my word? I mean my predictions sounds so policy wonky after the after this conversation your prediction Oliver dowden in Animal Crossing starting on probably the biggest updating broadcasting legislation and 18-years broadcasting laws are stuck in 2003 when Netflix was still a DVD company an Amazon of just posted.

It's first profit quite a bit of changes in senso and watch a bit for the better.

You know viewers have more choice and TV is being but a middle of that.

Phone Louisa preserve our queen little broadcasting ecology I say Queen it's not great at all.

It's a multi-billion pound industry.

I think first and foremost Central to all of that is protecting Public Service Broadcasting on all platforms of commas due to publish.

It's final recommendations from its Public Service Broadcasting review at this summer and it will say that the likes of the sea and ITV should have greater prominence on TV menus at volleyball content such as news doesn't get lost in the mix the noise of content that face with these days from carriage of walls between the BBC and Sky and it's and it's a very odd thing the BBC HD this is varied right, but give me some really clear prediction here.

We know that what's give me some give me some words that going to be in his report exactly what I just said.

I think there will be protected.

What did you just say there will be protections brought into to make sure that the likes of BBC One HD remain high and TV guides that when you go onto your Sky box that the iPlayer is very very clearly signposted.

I connect to the next to the Netflix app.

Ok, that's alternate you.

Why not you got a couple of predictions eat right so far as what else have you got Forever 21 actually? I think I can I can build on what Jake 3rd Twenty20 obviously was an anomaly and Jake making this earlier about how the advertising revenue bounce back up again and the audience Channel 4 bounce back up.

I don't know if that sustainable.

I think a lot of that is because we've been stuck indoors and TV has been your best friend for for this pandemic.

I think that this is going to be the Year of the IP

And we're going to see the advice broadcasting model at his deathbed.

So what is going to do is going to win Accelerate this idea of I'm sorry.

We're gonna bring based broadcasting model particularly, cos I think sport is going to struggle this question mark still over the Olympics and the football for this year and that's really going to hit Channel 4 on ITV quite hard.

Can you give us a stat can you give us a prediction of what they might do their bottom line or what would you planning ratings might be I want to know can hold you to that.

I mean when you compare it to the Olympics yes.

I I think viewing at the Olympic if you even happens.

I would argue that the viewing of the Olympics will probably be down by about 10% Ok, I like that and I don't like that, but I like the start yet, but if they try to do it this year and the reason for that is that I just cannot see as many country competing and it will feel like it's not as big as Olympic and sporting events have been previously which I think is true the football as well the foot.

League when you watch the Premier League without a crowd in the way, they're playing it's still the Premier League it doesn't feel like it's as big as it as it used to be and I'll cycle back to that can have an impact on sports rights for for this for this round as well, but when it comes to kind of broadcasters Channel 4 and ITV in particular.

I think we're going to start seeing those models particularly Channel 4 pivot into building IP and not being a broadcasting company and I think it's go back to what date was saying about Ian's roll.

I think you can cats did the previous generation of Channel 4 with Jay Hunt leading 8j.

Was the queen of that channel and what she said is what the channel was I think what we're going to see with with Alex bonfire and starting gun on the future Thorpe is it Channel 4 will be seen as a place where you build new ideas a little bit like they did with the circle.

So you build and launch and idea on Channel 4 and then the idea is that you would get that scene by the streamers.

Big massive gorillas in the room and hope to sell the international rights to those streamers, does it become a co-production effectively in the UK every year so I think I'll see more and more broadcast by ITV channel 4 taking more rights from Independent production companies.

They will be both the the thing that helps develop that show that shouts about it cuz it be broadcast and then they will then helps l&b, the broker to sell that to the big streaming platforms with international versions different language versions and but the format in the IP will kind of remain with the production company shared broadcaster anything as we go forward that's going to be the role of Channel 4 in in kind of continuing to push the Spirit of independent production looks like in the UK give us another one politics predictions.

It's likely candidate is obviously BBC4 which has already been holiday out some of its original shows a moving to BBC2 and last year controller Catherine Harrison was done out of a job a team shifted quietly over to BBC Studios which is the BBC's commercial arm and plays into a bigger narrative that's going on at the BBC at the moment which is they have taken the fairly seismic decision to scrap channel controller roles and place they much bigger emphasis on iPlayer first commissioning and that's a huge shift from traditional broadcasting to streaming and I think within that narrative.

I don't think you can justify having three channels on television anymore of the BBC has other channels children's channels, which serve very specific purposes and with his new CBeebies commission will tell you how important those children's chairs.

But I think in terms of those traditional II BBC One BBC Two BBC for those three channels.

I don't think you can sustain them in the future interesting happen.

It's probably more outrageous that might happen.

Where has now it does sort a few more inevitable part because he's gone in a Lumia Foreman partly.

I guess you know the comparison the CBeebies interesting one isn't it was a dad to tell my child in the linear broadcast when is the time to get your clothes off and go to school because it happened at the same time every day and that's important.

It's a babysitting service where as actually BBC4 I mean you can find Mark Kermode and Mayo Brandon whatever you want to watch on iPlayer it doesn't matter what time they're on the Mini I've been no one cares anymore literally no one who was well.

I think one of my reasons it probably hasn't gone already is that it is a channel that is well liked by The Catherine pastors and therefore known to politicians that I think it will be unpopular.

BBC 4 live no doubt it will be unpopular or popular in the BBC threatened services.

I think the most counterintuitive thing at the BBC talking about his moving and BBC3 that television it would be very very hard to given the narrative around the shift to digital and from what I can tell from sources.

I speak to the BBC the briefing on about moving DC35 TV has has has calm down someone is not quite as spicy as it once was OK give us your big finish and I should take care about gaming that's fine.

We got many more gas to come on the joke.

So what is your gaming prediction? Why I think that based on exactly as you said earlier.

I think that we're going to really see this year being game streaming Xbox game pass has been a singer that's been kicking around for awhile.

Which is there equivalent of of Netflix again.

You know you pay a subscription service and you.

Access hundreds of games Google launch their version with stadia Amazon other be launching their version of launching apple arcade plus but I think that with the launch of 5G and not getting to being at critical mass this year.

I think having a game streaming subscription.

Is it just going to start becoming the norm and I think that we're going to see a quite a large adoption of game streaming platforms where you have a 622 £12 subscription to access lots and lots of games and we're gonna stop seeing go to my point then about the cost of games like I said 50 quid you note for cartridge in the old days off for a digital subscription now.

That's gone to the revenue still stay I think it's gone for everybody apart from Nintendo I think Nintendo continue to be a day and an anomaly in in the against face but I think for company Microsoft and Sony eventually we will see subscription-based video game services moving forward and more free to play games where you know it's freezing point of entry and then you play lots of micro down.

Men's 22 enjoyed additional contract content like you seeing fortnite and Apex Legends and and Among Us but the the kind of premium games going to start coming on the bigger banners and I think that when you how difficult it's been to get hold of one of these next-generation of consoles, but they still completely dominated the narrative and the mind Cheryl entertainment World it really demonstrates that actually game streaming makes complete sense because you can play anywhere on your phone on your computer when your TV and that's exactly what the success of Netflix was and we'll start singing with video games as well.

Ok mate.


Very own Apex Legends for Osman and Jake counter.

We will be holding you two accounts next year now.

Let's see who's left a message on the media podcast hotline.

Hello, my name is an Charles from an Charles media and radiotek on my prediction is that voice based social Media apps will be big this year Clubhouse already has a major buzz around it stereo is spending loads of money on social media advertising and Twitter is developing a clubhouse rival called spaces.

So this is a real Trinity for people who love audio to Showcase their skills.

I also think commercial radio is likely to steal another couple of form of BBC Talents to their ranks, so have a look at the lineup for LBC x radio and maybe even scholar to see if you can spot some new names from LBC for 20211 is that the Daily Telegraph will go tabloid in format by the end of the year at least announces intention to I think it's the best way I can compete with the time.

And secondly that Kay Burley will not return after 6-months to present Sky News breakfast.

She will be given an all-encompassing roving role workshop make special guarantee the Knife of those two will come true predictions for 2020.

I think we can see that never has there been such a greater need for public service media and broadcasting especially after the Horrors of 2020 and the American election in my opinion the BBC is in a stronger position than we might have thought it would have been now partly because of its sterling service with operations like Bitesize catering for the children and also I think trying very hard to reform itself in terms of the way for example it covers news and current affairs.

Topics from the nations and the Regent's it's got a new chair.

It's got a new regime and I hope that it goes from strength to strength.

If it will be celebrating its centenary in 2022 so I think that it's got plenty going through tonight even think it's managing to navigate the over 75 licence issue.

This has been a very posh period for people who are depending on advertising of all freelancers working in the in the creative sector and I don't know how obviously the economy going to work out but one thing you can see if you if you look at the UK so hope there is a big growth in Studios the streamers in particular American building facilities large production units in the UK mainly it's true around London and in the Southeast that there is going to be.

Google hub, I think for production certainly in England and that there will be a lot of work coming through both films and television series and deduct you this week and see I also think that there's in a way a new accommodation taking place for some newspapers.

It's been of course but you can see the growth in subscriptions for national newspapers and you can also hear throughout the political debate.

I need for better regional and local newspapers or news operations that can be trusted all in all then I didn't say that.

This is going to be an easy year, but I do actually think that the British satellite broadcasting will bounce back and of course I'm cluding that channel 4 because my Channel 4 history from 2007 to the current day will be coming out this spring and

It clearly has gotten and a threat of privatisation over it but I also think that it has plenty of scope to prove that it's useful and a crate Force for innovation in across the UK it has taken itself out of London it's perfectly capable of striking deals which can reinforce it without I'm going down the root of meeting private capital so that's my prediction write welcome back for the second half of the show I am joined by folder medias Matt Deegan Happy New Year rats have nearly let's see how you fare on your predictions for the past 12-months you said 2020 will be the rise of the podcast exclusive from BBC sounds Spotify and apple podcasts you said commercial radio consolidation will happen will see the end of very local indeed.

Commercial radio examples of kmfm Q radio and you said that we will see a tax on the BBC by government are going to increase not a bad scorecard.

That's all interns podcast exclusive last year.

Yes, I'm in lots of that going on wasn't there yes particularly from Spotify there on BBC sounds quite a few things went on their first before later going on to Apple podcasts on other places.

We haven't really seen podcast exclusives from Apple there's still lots of took that they going to get into the content place.

They said they going to create podcasts for some of the Apple TV shows they haven't had a hired any big names or anything interesting behind-the-scenes is at the past few months.

I still think there is something coming from them.

That's a little more interesting the financial will be because I mean with Apple TV Plus you sort of kind of

Subscription videos at the end of the day once I actually start charging people for it but with podcast through their own doing so what would be would just be getting people to their podcast app that would be the only advantage.

I think they're facing for the first time proper competition from Spotify for people using their software to listen to podcasts and having had the market for so long.

There is a danger for them in that they that they will Squander an excellently that they have and a good way to do that is to create your own content we saw the other week that wondering is about to be bought by Amazon Amazon launched Amazon music podcasts at the end of last year.

You're having a stake in the content game gives you some Paul when when when either that or you're trying to create an ad network around your premium content of myself that Spotify doing with all these sign-ups.

They're crazy.

Network for advertising forecasting ok now commercial radio consolidation difficult to argue against that and it's hard to think of many commercial radio stations that aren't now part of the three big groups but kmfm and Q radio the examples you gave I think those dyslexia.

So yes, so they are still independent so it's on that one but the spirit of the law to borrow a very few stations left are part of networks and even your kmfm and your Cues are sorted apart a power cos baranow sell their national advertising so you've kind of there were very few small stations left and I think the knock on her that would we were going to probably see this yeah well our friends over on the radio Today programme podcast would say that this could create a boon for Ultra local radio stations, but you agree because I mean that should have given as a sort of.

Relatively unchallenged assertion when radio geeks talk to each other but the public really want had a local station businesses we run multiplexers around the country that sell space to people who want to come forecast radio stations.

We have the BBC in big commercial groups on there, but we have small groups to small stations and it says there is there is definitely a market for a local service gap in the market for that question is always there a market in the gap.

Can they build businesses around that and what we've seen in North Yorkshire where Bower replaced Minster FM stray FM Yorkshire Coast Radio with Greatest Hits people from all three of those stations have launched basically the old station back again as a local service on the x-ray multiplexed internet and mobile no such things but the most interesting about them is they kept a lot of Versailles people from the old days, so if there's someone that's going to me.

Go with it you'd assume it was them and they stations had done quite well as independent station, so that will be one of the tests.

I think can some of those hyperlocal newbies and make a business if they can then I think we'll see probably an explosion in people having a go, but it's stuff and then attacks on the BBC by government are only going to increase you predicted ahead of 2020.

I'm going to go that got interrupted by coronavirus when they were saying who the chair being all they sort of things then the BBC pulled out a brilliant public service rabbit from the hat was it all launched by the BBC

Growing and I think they probably warded off a little bit but also the fact that some of the right-wing headbangers have been chucked out and Number 10 as well and is generally not be coming to the BBC it's not going to change but the the people really wanted it probably aren't there anymore and then the government have bigger problems to deal with brexit coronavirus public like the BBC at the moment.

Don't know something with Marcus rashford sized.

Yes alright predictions for 2021 then.

What can you give us so on radio? It would have been probably 15 months since the radar.

I think we're going to see some surprises in the radio when it finally comes out one of things you normally have is it goes quarter by quarter and so it's all I think we'll see some big changes.

I think x radius going to do well.

What does that mean? Can you give us a number? I wouldn't have anyone else this but you of all people radio watcher Madigan what would

Play x radio should get so a successful them would I think the half a million listeners? I think they might go 700000 mile.

I think the Greatest Hits which is the combination of these stations.

I think they'll see a decent declining a kind of maybe a 15% decline on on what they used to be is it going to be a lot more ups and downs but because I didn't people's behaviour change during lockdown.

That's changed.

How they consume radio and as it's going to be a view that the wattsdown actually.

I'm ok.

You said the old stations that used to be Greatest Hits first you can imagine that newsradio would be up because the Desperate circumstances.

We've been in SE5 live LBC whatever but also but people escaping the new circumstances.

You have been listening to a lot of Magic at the musicals will also be up so like who's not doing well out of it because it's going to be 1516 months worth.

I don't think it's going to be easier say.

Apple music down or all those things I think it's more that people have had different times to listen to different things and so they general what their basic stations are they listen to it breakfast or other out? I will shift that I have an effect quite big effect on Henry Charles balance bike might finally be flattened absolutely big companies quietly stopping doing podcasts because they've realised that the economics don't add up some people who probably have three play shows I just have a look at that and go we can't really make that that work at economically so like to like a podcast network or you mean like the radio networks magazines do stuff.

It's not their core activity.

I think it seems fun and hot and sexy nothing to get into but they realise actually it's quite hard to do a hard thing might be but they're not.

Really losing much money on them.

They might be almost breaking even it's just a calculation of effort vs.

Reward isn't it? You want The Prestige and I guess there's so much competition now where where you resources should be put into you think he'll put a decent of time in there is a lot of ego podcasting in in a B2B publications or even just from you know some titles and it's going to be on but actually the biggest they getting don't really justify it.

So if you have a B2B Media podcast title that you're going to kill off sponsor Oz instead.

They go where the audiences and how do you know who measures that podcast hosts normally can tell you how people are listening, but I think I think to the generally here in Britain where apple is still the lead.

Spotify takeover just because exclusives it being that people used to using and it'd be more cross-platform.

So yeah, I think Spotify will go down the one in podcast Radiohead exclusive for you Media bodies.

I have switched my podcast listening of agents is Spotify not from that it casts because I wanted to download shows to my phone and that was the main thing.

I'm concerned being at home having good quality broadband spotify's better at moving from my my phone to the DAB streaming Bluetooth thing in the kitchen to my laptop upstairs, swear.

I'm up to I'm just reading everything.

I don't download any more improving the product today is Napster pocket cast is up for sale really good third-party app was bought by a Consortium of public broadcasters last year play NPR types and that's why I thought that was quite a good idea than having a steak in that.

Assume they gone this is heart is hard to make an impact in and look at you wear these devices and services are so they can I put it up for sale also my Twitter bought breaker which was sort of an early break out the party app and that's been sorted.

Shut down.

I think it'll be sold off but the team are moving to Twitter to head up all of their own audio plans.

We will hold you to account next year.

Thank you very much for joining us Matt Deegan and all our foolhardy contributors for going on the record once again.

It's the only way to guarantee.

They will be firmly held to account next is to ensure the survival of this show if you love what we do.

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The next episode that is the media next Thursday subscribe to media podcast on your broadcasting out of choice.

I've been lonely man the producer this week was that help the media podcast is a pm and reading audio production, but I my other one which kind of legs were taken saying I'm kind of money on this I reckon BBC Parliament on BBC News going to merge and it's going to be BBC News Parliament that disappears.

Don't think anybody will care about 24-hour news anymore Trump's gone brexit go on warrant.

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