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Read this: #127 - 2020 Vision: Pundit Predictions Special

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#127 - 2020 Vision: Pundit Predictions S…

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Happy new year and welcome to the first Media podcast of 2020.

I'm only man today show is our annual prediction special a glimpse into what 2020 has in store for the media.

We invite some of our favourite industry insiders to reveal their trends for the year ahead in TV radio and online 2019 was a big one with the launch of mega streaming services Disney Plus on Apple TV and britbox the rise of took the Telegraph sale, not to mention another culture secretary some of our favourite contributors are going to share with you there trends for the year ahead including generous Alex Hudson

Audio digging and Paul Robinson and media analyst Karen Robinson stay tuned to find out whether 2020 will be the Year Facebook dies who will win the battle to survive the stream and if the BBC can survive long enough to win over generation Z but that start with a Reckoning how many of the predictions made by expert this time last year actually came true and how many were wildly off the Mark regular guests Rebecca Gilly Faraz manan.

Jake kanter sit in judgement of themselves in just a moment, but let's start with the managing director of one of the UK's biggest content companies after a year spent beefing up their podcast production in these something else is now responsible for David Tennant interview podcast and companion cast for the drama series The Crown Steve Ackerman is the MD

Small at my predictions from last year to see how I did the first thing I said was there be a real mentioned in Headland and that some really famous agency names will be retired by some of the holding companies and we certainly saw that happened the second thing I predicted was that short form storytelling on social woodrise particularly Instagram stories and we've definitely seen great use Instagram stories.

I also said when I was talking about social that would be great progress and stop and the Demise of Snapchat and I'm feeling pretty good cos I think I got both of those right as well and then the third thing I predicted which I think was maybe a bit of an easy one, but I did predict that we see continued aggressive broken broadcasting space.

I did also say the scripture podcast it come out of the UK I did we did see that because if you had passenger list that UK produce different was backed by us money from Radio so looking ahead to 2020.

What do I think he's going to be a I'm going to start a podcast in because I just think this is the big story for 2020.

We've seen such massive growth going on it.

19 that's going to carry on but I think what we're gonna start see even more than 2020 is that positions of podcast and companies both in the US and the UK I also think we're going to see some really low content company big TV players potentially a few more the movie studio start to look to get into the podcast space as that move and drive towards developing IP really steps for pace my second prediction and it doesn't give me any pleasure to predict.

This is that I think the BBC's going to have a very tough time in 2020 on two fronts first of all a government that seems to be slightly hostile to pause them and that's going to have an implication for the BBC from a financial perspective particularly as we wait to see how things play out over the approach to the non-payment of licences and whether the government is going to stop using people for that could really have a big knock on effect for the BBC in terms of their finances are my prediction is really over the on-demand TV space obviously going to see some new players into the space as

Disney start to launch their offerings in the UK and one would think that some point that has to start be some casualties in this space and my prediction is that Brit box is going to be the player that's fine things tough going with the big American players coming to the space with bigger pockets bigger ability to market their products and ultimately I think it's britbox that might suffer eventually Fall by the wayside does my predictions for 2020 Steve Ackerman ok time for Jake kanter Who after taking up a role at deadline as international editor Cent 2019 reporting on some of the biggest Media stories of the Year nowadays.

He's the chair of the broadcasting press Guild as well, but let's find out if his predictions from last year came true happening at Media podcast listeners Jake kanter here so I predicted three things last year with mixed success the first of which was that we would see the full scale of apples TV vision.

I got this one right.

B plus launched in November 2019 with content like the morning show what we saw Jay Hunt really getting to work in Europe and signing up Sharon Horgan on an exclusive deal and Commission number shows as well.

I also predicted that the BBC with Closer TV channel.

Obviously I got this one very badly wrong, but I still think the BBC is shy away from making some big cuts and the government could really attack it this year through decriminalising non-payment of the licensee PVC reckon this alone would give it 200 million shows the thing I said was that the government would have a shot at regulating the internet again.

I got this one right and we could see the creation of a tech regulator this year with the aim of policing harmful content online and improving data handling culture secretary Nicky Morgan has got a really big job on her hands with that looking ahead.

2020 I think we might start to see some sort of consolidation among the streaming services even for a lonely Media jealous like me who gets paid to watch telly.

There is too much to watch and I think that funeral later that will begin to b for some of these companies the big persistent rumour of courses that Apple will buy Netflix now.

I'm not saying that deal with I think we'll see consolidation of that ilk at this year sticking with the stream as for my second prediction.

I think the more big British talent will be snapped up by these online video please at this year.

We've seen Phoebe waller-bridge.

Golden handcuffs with Amazon Peter Morgan to the deal with Netflix and Sharon Horgan went to Apple as I mentioned earlier.

There will be more reckon and finally 2020 is do or die for Channel 4 content chief in cats.

I think the jury is still out on whether the four.

Not managed in a good job at Channel 4 after 2-years in the hot seat I think he now needs to show at this year that you can find a new generation of noisy hits and keep Channel 4 viewing healthy.

If not at the most talked-about man in TV which was the monarch I gave him in a deadline.

Please last year well.

He could be out of a job and that woman has no TV now.

It's the turn of Rebecca Messina formerly Rebecca Gilly Long Time Media podcast contributor left the capital this year to take the letter supposed at immediate Media in Bristol leaving the Big smoke hasn't exempted from the Reckoning though will her predictions from last year we prove right I predicted that 2019 with Mark the return of appointment TV station for saying that I think I was right for you the biggest shows of love.

You know fleabag Chernobyl Game of Thrones the second series of killing Eve I think they will prove that week by week Sit Down TV is boffin dead anyway under 2020.

I think my top Productions 2020 it's bit of a sad one is it I think we'll see the closure of another major women's print magazine we are glamour and Marie Claire closing down their print output this year and if I had to take a gas.

I would say the grazie Road might be in the danger zone in August circulation Diplo 100000 month for the first time and I think it's certainly it's not that one another familiar name from the supermarket shelves will be leaving us.

This is the year by the BBC forced to take major action to reassert his reputation for neutrality and whiskey and very vitriolic comments thrown at the B&B

Yeah, particularly on social media.

You know commentator journalist particularly Laura kuenssberg the kind of attacks you came under the general election.

I think were the opening at the rights or wrongs of and crystallizing public figures in this kind of the toilet language.

I think it's definitely sign that tempers have reached boiling point and I'm not sure that BBC can robot from this position are making some significant changes or concessions invite people on both sides of political spectrum.

What form that will take whether that's increased transparency or a different form of demonstrating transparency editorial Changes by think that's something that would definitely going to see play out this year another three.

I think this is the year we're going to find streaming service for Teague just in November and we saw the launch of Apple TV Plus and britbox US Netflix or Amazon Prime rivals 31st of March this year will be the UK launches Disney plus streaming service.

I think this is going to be the point where the average person just throws at the hands and says I can't take this anymore.

You know if you're going to carry on paying know which one is cheaper 5678 find when you had up for five of them.

You've basically got the same that you pay for a Sky subscription.

You know the whole point of the streaming models that was supposed to break the existing status Quo and free just enjoy the media.

They wanted that having to pay but loads of stuff.

They didn't want on top of it and I think when you're paying for more than 2 streaming services.

You're starting to end up towards lime I finally people are going to say hey wait a minute.

We've been we basically been led into doing the same thing that we are trying to escape in the first place which is paying through the nose for tons of content the majority of which we don't want Rebecca the senior production company gold Waller in 2018 for rosman.

Spent last year making content for the BBC to win over audiences other companies.

Let's see if he's pleased with how his predictions from last year panned out.

I have terrible weather predictions for last year, so what decided to avoid Olly Holden me to account with an Andrew Neil stop drilling and will attempt to create about what I really meant firstly.

I said that Apple would buy a major studio like Sony in an effort to build it back catalogue for streaming video service and instead.

They're not to the grand total of 8 titles however.

There is an exclusive deal with Richard helper the celebrated CEO chief.

That's not good news to CDs new owners AT&T but it is a shrewd Move by Apple and win their first major breakout show is Shorter I also said the Apple bundle of service together music news magazines and TV and wireless services watching dependently apple decided against them under one banner.

I reckon that still going to happen and being held up by record labels been cold on the idea of fact that backed up by Apple basically giving Apple TV Plus away with a 3-years description to anyone that buys a new Apple device my other prediction is at

Was going to step down as director-general of the BBC after relatively calm and decent period for them that definitely didn't happen and there's little sign that is going to have been a lot of movement within senior commissioning team at the and while this time last year things that pretty ok for them post-election things aren't nearly as Rosie at new broadcasting house, I'd also predicted that major prokocim platform was gonna launch and Spotify put their Robin massive flag in the sand as they're moving the podcast in space and earthquakes through the building industry.

I'm definitely going to talk that one up as a win for my crystal ball so my predictions for 2020 and beyond cinema is going to have really really rough time as Disney citation theatres and move is Focus onto his own platforms Disney have dominated cinema taking in over 10 billion dollars last year alone with Marvel Star Wars story and library makes of their old animated films SEO company with the launch of Disney plus and it's probably the biggest might drop that were ever see in the entertainment industry video game.

Going to be everything in popular culture next year the launch of new consoles from Xbox and PlayStation will be inescapable as a domino advertising and the retail space and original gaming IP will seep into Every Corner including big-budget films and TV shows as a dominance of comic book heroes a finally taken out by The Videogame counterparts and finally I predict that we're going to start seeing the ownership of social media platforms changing hands while the rise of tiktok has been phenomenal Association as a wholly-owned Chinese companies putting it under crippling regulatory pressures selling Estate to someone else so that might be a quick fix those issues and depending on what happens with the 2020 us elections.

I think someone is going to make a play for Twitter founder and current CEO Jack Dorsey seems to be less attached the day by day and well.

It doesn't have a user base of its rivals it still have a voice that could be seen as very very valuable to the right investor speak about social if you want to see what we get up to this year.

You can follow us on Twitter Instagram LinkedIn

Underscore Waller happy new year all Faraz Osman and I'll be back with more sight into what the next 12-months might hold for the media industry after this hello.

I'm Jessie Ware from table Manners the podcast now here with my mum died and we have a special bonus episode of table manners coming to you sponsored by Sainsbury's taste autumn edition range check it out to the fantastic broadcaster and entrepreneur Laura Jackson all about how to host fantastically listen now on your favourite podcast on this WhatsApp message could be about surprise birthday party or a present made a necklace a lightsaber or a date the trampoline Park to be about something else entirely mean.

It's a voice message reminder about of rainy day or running late for a day running late for a running day today.

Anyway, so just say what are you up to?

With end-to-end encryption no one WhatsApp poker back to the media podcast prediction special is not over yet still to come industry insiders Matt Deegan Karen Robinson and Tara Conlan reveal what they expect from the next 12-months in TV radio print and online, but let's start with media consultant and radio veteran Paul Robinson what does he think the world has in store for us in 2020 Robinson from crisis Media partners with some forecast for the media podcast for 2020 so first of all to streaming an s.

Ford and 2019 has been a busy year, but even more competitive in 2020 with Amazon Prime video Netflix and Hulu competing with Disney which is already launched and Apple TV and more services to come including one from

Add in the UK we also have NOW TV so if you look at the research it suggests that 44% of connected customers who pay for an online streaming service have at least two subscribe 18% pay for 3 and 7% pay for more for a more amasa.

Jess it's going to be very very difficult for new entrance to come into the market unless they've got a very compelling content and original and exclusive content so we'll all these players survive will new entrance successfully come in and what will happen to the existing players so forecast number one is that net it's the market leader with 160 million subscribers will be up for sale in 2020.

They would a balance sheet which has got a horrible holding it but the whole supported because they continue to add new subscribers and they've increase their average revenue per user there are poo by increasing their prices slowly but surely, but will that continue I think they will be.

Thailand will be the buyers I can only see 21 would be Amazon and the second would be Apple so that's the first forecast that Netflix is up for sale in 2020 s still with streaming britbox the ITV BBC joint venture which is also an escort service in the US I can see this being highly successful.

It's 100 million TV market is a lot of anglophiles in the US and britbox will find its place as in the service in the US in the UK a different story with iPlayer being very strong with the extended window now and I play of 12-months and most of the shows on britbox having a window on a free TV TV channel or pay TV channel and then another streaming service to then pay for britbox seems very unlikely so I think britbox is going to struggle and by the end of 2020 what either going to see britbox close, Corby radically re-engineered in its current form.

Study to radio and sing developments been podcasting and podcast Radio podcast Radio launches in 2020 as a london-wide dab service if you know the BBC place that's recently come out.

They have claimed 3 million weekly users now to BBC sounds up from 1.3 million in June but it has been very heavily promoted on BBC Radio and BBC TV c-130 million plays if you take brexit cast out of it most of the podcast getting the big numbers on new original ideas different people doing different things that are not on BBC Radio 2 podcasting is not the same as radio either in terms of the talent the subject matter or the intimacy the way in which is actually consumed so will podcast Radio work leave it will because at the end of the day.

It's about getting exposure and getting podcast onto a london-wide dab.

Will give them greater exposure and will resolve them people trying those podcast.

One bit of Interest I'm the chairman of East London radio and wiggly very much involved with podcasts radio in 2020 with a couple of major streams on there.

Cos we believe that podcasting as a broth.

What's medium will be very successful in 2020 and have a conscious computer according to futurologist Ian Pearson Nobel Prize winner record eliminate will be doing all the cleaning and Elon Musk reckon that be serious wants to go to Mars already given that none of those at predicting the media landscape is tricky, but I'm going to have a go first one big us players are going to look to British and European shoe also over recent years the UK seen so many exports us the Guardian online huge successes.

There's rumours that the sun is up inna stuffing there and what 2020 will be the year of is it happening the other way around so they're not looking for 10 million subscribers and it's Focus

UK as a key market the New Yorker to I think so and if I had to guess I can one of the big us news magazines time newsweek Atlantic us Weekly or another one is going to make a big play British and European markets.

Just a hunch can have a huge impact.

This is going to be here when 5G goes mainstream and a media has to reactivate could finally make video viable funniest it should make up mentored reality into a meaningful way to create content opens up so many possibilities we don't know what happened with the bandwidth and I've only seen speeds over 250 MB so few people using the network, but this is the first time that really comes before the media supply for it.

So what happens when you could live streaming and Ruby are what happens when 4K video can be without Wi-Fi the fat content providers aren't ahead of this.

They were with 2G 3G 4G is exciting but terrifying that we don't have anything more than HD video to offer at the minute, so what?

Comes next and that's our job to find out the third one is something has got to give the streaming walls like how many streaming services are too many but Netflix you got £100 a year for Amazon Prime at £6 a month and can you get HBO Max britbox Apple TV Hulu creepy in there could be more hear that either ones I forgotten all that haven't even been announced yet and that all adds up.

So it could be 6 lb of 10 to choose from that's a lot of money a month and which ones will consumers pick, how does Netflix for the future start retain its customer base that will be fine though growth will not be maintained Disney also huge potential are shown by the report of 25 million subscribers in a 7 weeks after launch.

That's completely ridiculous, but on the other side of things to ones to watch as Apple TV when the free end and britbox like £6 a month, what shows you can already watch all4 ITV hub iPlayer strikes me as strange but we'll see like it's an overseas player but I think it harms British anthem.

Reinforces it wouldn't have traveled as far and wide if it been stuck within britbox rather be allowed out to different streaming platforms number for that tiktok stocks morphine Social Club on as people created wonderful invented content and its best thing is that sounds of the content is there just because people wanted to create it rather than people thought they could make money from it the Instagram backlash the influence.

They were already in the middle of more about the sea traditional Media turn to tiktok so if radio One's existing recovery driver light on YouTube it's next one will be on this platform.

It's ridiculous funny and where actual real gen Z people live 2020 of the EuroMillions come along and utterly ruined it in parallel to the most forward-thinking advertises coming along and setting out the model of how is it going to spend big money there, but if influencer marketing is dead and that's kind of what tiktok relies on it.

Just the personalities then, what is the industry going to come up with next and there is so many more the podcast Walsall

Streaming Battle of Bieber finally hi ahead of the emoji answers faces going to have a day that will end up being referred to as a day Facebook died the news voices of the Next Generation will finally start coming through now Paxman Humphries in the others are off the lights and the first 8k broadcast will happen and a technical and it will be the biggest story of the consumer electronics.

Show is a TVs finally become almost affordable my name is Karen Robinson and I'm planning director at Edelman and the host of to podcasts primarily 2020 about the US democratic primary and the newly until one day a kids fiction podcast I have three predictions to set out for you in terms of what the media landscape might look like in 2020 the first of these is that I would be looking at some direct to the BBC licence from both the left and right political spectrum Boris Johnson is already hinted that he might decriminalise licence non-payment for the BBC certainly the left as well.

Corbyn's labour have had a lot of critical commentary about the BBC and has directed leftist activists against the Enterprise both sides are seeing it as a partisan and biased in One Direction with the other the long-term implications of that are that it might become hard to defend where these two BBC might have a job to do to defend its independence licence whether or not you can BBC has already been bending over backwards to try and curry favour with politicians it seems clear that it hasn't worked and so I would look for some portable charger to the BBC Enterprise but I kind of also would expect if that happened that we might see yeah.

I kind of secondary production which is a a backlash to that because the BBC is a British institution, so I would be surprised if we didn't then see campaigners Up In Arms in Defence of the BBC at the other major production.

I would have and unfortunately I it's

Is I think we can pretty safely assume with it somehow or other Facebook is going to badly screw up the US presidential election in November of we've got the words about possible world in 2016 of course Facebook had a big impact on that election in ways that we didn't entirely see at the time both in terms of paper and Ambrose a lot of viral content was fake news misinformation.

They haven't really fix that problem.

They've added some transparency feature since then, but they haven't really know the problem with news and inviting when importing away they've made it much worse because Facebook has of course changed their policy since the 2016 election and now explicitly it's false information in political advertising now in a record of an hour's case scenario here because Facebook has not only made that policy change but made it long enough in advance.

I would expect now.

You'll see both sides of the political aisle and friendly independent groups as well exploding that fact and putting out a lot of false information directly in pave advertisement that will reach anywhere from millions of people to highly targeted advertising Facebook employees have been pushing back on this and it was trying to get me think that position and 11 change that they're trying to push for is 24-bit microtargeting below a certain point of things that you wouldn't be able to target so a couple hundred people with false in a particular city in Wisconsin but nevertheless whether it's small or big.

I think was a lot of explicitly falsehood go information and add my suggestion would be you might want to think about just turning off the form all together or you're going to get a lot of dodgy information from your auntie in Minnesota sorry Minnesota aunties and I have for you is in a general sense.

I would expect to see.

Accelerated move towards new media Enterprises that offer hyper servicing to meet interesting fan Communities on a paid subscription basis now.

This is a train that we've been anyway with lot of things like tinyletter newsletters, but I would expect to see that commercialised a bit more and scaled up one of them people in the UK of the type of thing that mean is the large of the athletic last year, so I think we'll start seeing more and more of that type of business model slimming artists across sports buttercross other Enterprises like fashion world down to us and those are my predictions for 2020.

It's going to be quite a year no matter how you look at it.

Stay tuned multimedia and fun kids and I'm also one of the co-organiser of the British podcast Awards so predictions for 2020 well.

I've got three my first one is all about.

Collusive exclusives in the podcast world has been there you can get any show anywhere if you whatever device you use software used as you can subscribe to a podcast and listen to it that way but I think that's all changing we still quite a bit of it in 2019 with BBC sounds having some window where they started to put podcast Up first and also we saw Spotify take a few podcast private sort of answer put them behind a paywall much more of that in 2020.

It's in everyone's interest will accept consumers that they can the all these devices and manufacturers and service providers can grow their audiences and the best do that is have exclusive content so we've seen in the world of Netflix and Amazon and I think it's coming to audio now as well as BBC sounds on Spotify I think this year we'll see apple pod.

Have some exclusive content that only available in their device also I think we'll see the growth of other subscription audio services, so your audibles been in the UK for a long time see the growth of people like luminary and also similar companies do more language Pacific stuff across Europe at place where you have to pay to get premium audio.

Ok, my second is about radio consolidations is commercial radio consolidation.

We saw a huge amount of that in 2019 particularly with H acquisition of the wireless group local stations UK Lincs FM and salad or trouble trying to get that through the CMA so I expect that to be resolved pretty quickly this year that will see them likely roll out their networks across more of the country goes on the stations, but perhaps on some of their existing stations to they really been pushing the hits hits radio and and grey.

Radio we also know that there's obviously brands and kiss and magic which could be rolled out in other places to so I didn't see strong rollout national brands for power that and that doesn't many stations can a unaligned in the UK so I would expect the sum of the the bigger ones the left things that the kmfm group and things like the radio in Northern Ireland are more likely to fall into these big networks.

I think he's listening is a local radio station is going to be more difficult and nothing will probably see the end a very local radio and finally we had a previous this in December but the attacks on the BBC only going to increase at the Conservatives with a strong and majority suddenly have the ability to be more difficult to The Corporation has been pre negative towards the BBC but they always need the boys know that they can't cannot shut it down or sell it off because it is it's too popular the

Way to eventually finish off the BBC is fritter crumble from the Inside to make it self-harm and to have less consumers listeners viewers now.

They're going to do this in a couple of the option to send a couple of ways that one is there's a bit of a licence be review money.

It's not a full charter renewal which is still quite a few years away, but there's a bit of wiggle room to cause some trouble is also the over 75s licence fees which the Tories have always pushed that the BBC should pay for that Sheerness £102 me the BBC have to save to pay for that to be a tax on editorial particularly around social media where we're all in our own Bubbles and that's the same for 4 people in the sector to so much of their own world anything from from the outside looks like buyer, so I can't see that stopping the wonderland report for the B&B

Is that rise in social media and kind of fake news for one of a better word and at the same time arise in US Media control in Netflix Amazon but your comcast ownership of Sky Disney ownership of musical products may make the government consider the devil you know with the BBC at least there's something that they can control and ensure there's more UK content so they're my top 3 predictions.

I'm Tara Conlan a freelance writer for The Guardian broadcast magazine and the RTS magazine television this year.

I'm wondering if it's the beginning of the stream of consolidation with so many new options available for consumers, how much will a stick with Netflix and Amazon is Hulu Disney apple?

See universal quibi and also add funded thoughts such as Pluto all these new entrants are coming in but viewers only have a finite amount of time and money and what the Crunch point someone buy Netflix with over 12 billion dollars of dead and new rivals there's been talking could be bought by someone like apple and there's three marker will probably hear more in 2020 about new short form social media tiktok and how that can be harnessed and monetized plus platforms that encompass on screen interactivity with twitch and mixer.

How old is newcomers are regulated compared with traditional TV is another thing are there? I think we'll keep commentators and politicians busy.

I think 2020 will also be about Studios and supervisors.

We've been through an error.

When Sally was selling off all down scaling Studios and mouse.

Sky Studios expanding into Elstree of this couple of years and Netflix renting most of Shepperton I think this will lead to the further rise of the Star Super writers in comedy which is quite right in my book that they're being probably rewarded now.

There's been big names previously such as Andrew Davies but now there's even more so you said look at Peter Morgan still with Netflix and Netflix nose to expand globally you've got to have compelling content or as Greg Dyke put it is the programs stupid though with euro 2020 coming out this year and ITV's new Julian fellowes drama, Downton fans plus the brilliantly bonkers the masked singer.

We may I think him more about traditional TV shows this year Peter crouch's euro 2020 and it could be sort of a new Last Leg and everyone will be asking James Corden and Ruth Jones and the cast of Gavin Stacey every event that go to this year.

What will happen to Nessa and

And when the next installment of Gavin and Stacey will be but also this year.

I think we'll start to see the whites of the eyes of the new government pre-election talk about the future and BBC we can probably expect a lot about the BBC's funding settlement which ends in March 2022, but think I'm loving will start in Earnest this year of The Corporation laying out its toll and others doing the best to knock it down, but it's also worth remembering that 2022 is the same year the BBC centenary is the government really going to cut the BBC in that year when it's celebrating 100 years.

It's not really good look more interest is nerve-racking bungee.

Jump off a dam in a Rover Metro in the forthcoming new series of Top Gear I think I'll be even greater interest in presenter Freddie Flintoff he can talk about issues such as metal tolerance as readily as you can perform daredevil stunts there seems to be nothing he can't do one thing for certain though in 2020 and that viewers will have more choice than ever before that is all.

This week my thanks to all my guests for their excellent speculations will find out this time next year if any of them actually came true tell us what you think of the pigeons.

You've just heard or make your own suggestions for 22 by tweeting as we are at the media podcast if you enjoyed this episode and you've made a resolution to give something back.

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